Bitcoin’s First-Week November Tests: US Elections, Rate Decisions and Jobs Data

The US election puts political expectations to a test

Bitcoin and the wider crypto market begin the first week of November while still recovering from a sharp setback. The supplied account says a record $6.3 billion Binance hack pushed Bitcoin to a six-week low on Friday. Against that backdrop, investors face several new events in quick succession: US congressional elections, three central-bank decisions and Friday’s employment report. Each could test expectations, but none guarantees a particular market move.

On Tuesday, November 3, Americans vote for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats. A Bloomberg survey of 301 investors found a pronounced difference in Bitcoin expectations depending on which party controls Congress: 29% expected the price to exceed $100,000 by year-end under Republican control, compared with 8% under Democratic control. Those figures describe respondents’ views, not a forecast established by the election itself.

The survey has important limitations: participation was opt-in, and Bloomberg did not weight the results. Its figures therefore show a snapshot of participating investors’ expectations rather than a definitive measure of market sentiment. The source also says that 71% of respondents expected Bitcoin to finish 2026 lower under Democratic control. The election may reveal whether the political outcome matches those assumptions, but the survey cannot establish how Bitcoin will respond or what will drive any change.

Three overseas rate decisions may extend tightening

Past midterm performance offers context, but not a smooth or dependable template. DWF Labs figures cited in the source show Bitcoin rose 25%, 45% and 92% in the twelve months after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms, respectively. Looking only at the eventual one-year gains misses the setbacks along the way: Bitcoin was down 31% and 46% three months after the 2014 and 2018 votes. The historical record includes both outcomes and interim losses.

The next event is Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia decision. Economists expect the RBA to raise its cash rate from 4.60% to 4.85%. That is a forecast, not an announced decision, and the source does not establish how markets will react if the bank acts differently. For crypto investors, the practical relevance is that another increase would add to a week in which several major central banks are expected to tighten policy.

Sweden’s Riksbank is due to announce its decision on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs and ING both expect a quarter-point increase, taking the rate to 2.00%. Their shared expectation does not settle what the bank will do, and a rate announcement is only one part of the information investors may consider. The decision will arrive between the RBA’s meeting and the Bank of England’s, making the sequence of policy signals a feature of the week.

US business and jobs data will test Fed expectations

The Bank of England is scheduled to decide on Thursday. Economists in a Reuters poll expect a rise from 3.75% to 4.0%, which would be the first increase since August 2023. UK inflation reached 3.5% in the year to September, above the BoE’s 3.0% forecast, as energy costs rose. That inflation reading helps explain why a hike is expected, but it does not prove that the bank will follow the forecast.

The BoE’s guidance may matter as much as the immediate rate decision. Markets are betting on three to four additional hikes in 2027, yet the bank may resist endorsing that path. Oxford Economics UK economist Alexander Harvey said the committee might not clearly specify how many increases it plans, while meeting minutes or Governor Andrew Bailey could signal that the rate is unlikely to reach the level priced into markets. The scale of any signal remains unknown.

These expected moves follow tightening in Canada and a divided discussion at the Federal Reserve. On October 28, the Bank of Canada raised rates, citing high oil prices. The Fed held rates that day, although two officials voted for an increase. The source identifies the portfolio implication of higher rates: cash and bonds can become more rewarding, potentially drawing funds away from non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin. That is a possible pressure, not a guaranteed market outcome.

Market reactions remain uncertain across all three fronts

US economic releases will provide another test of rate expectations. CME FedWatch puts the chance of a Federal Reserve hike on December 9 at 73.8%, and this week’s reports are the first test of that pricing. The Institute for Supply Management will publish two business surveys. For Monday’s manufacturing index, forecasts call for 54.7, slightly above September’s 54.5. These are expectations ahead of publication; the actual readings could differ.

Friday’s employment report is the week’s most closely watched US data release in the supplied account. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect 55,000 new jobs. September added 29,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, far below the 90,000 estimate. The gap between the prior estimate and reported result illustrates why the forthcoming figure matters for expectations. Until Friday’s release, the forecast remains provisional, and the source gives no result for October.

Bitcoin has reacted rapidly to payroll surprises before: when August payrolls nearly tripled forecasts, its price fell 1.8% from the pre-release level within minutes. That example shows the potential for a swift response, not a rule that every surprise will produce the same move. October inflation data is due November 10, giving the Fed another input before December. For now, election results, policy choices and economic readings are all pending, leaving the week’s market consequences unsettled.

Source: BeInCrypto