Bitcoin Tests September Rally Base as $75K–$78K Demand Zone Comes Into Focus

Bitcoin tests the base of September’s rally

Bitcoin is attempting to steady near $78,000 after recording four consecutive weekly losses. The latest decline has brought the market into a $75,000–$78,000 demand zone, an area that formed the base of the sharp September rally. That makes the zone an important near-term test: buyers have responded there, but the recovery so far has been limited and has not yet repaired the weakening chart structure.

Market pressure has included a reported record Binance hack and a $643.3 million withdrawal from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds on Friday. The supplied analysis links the hack news to a sharp sell-off, while the ETF withdrawal adds another negative data point to the market backdrop. Those developments coincide with Bitcoin’s fourth straight weekly loss, although the available information does not establish that either factor alone explains the broader decline.

The larger daily chart still shows Bitcoin inside the ascending channel that has guided its recovery from summer lows near $58,000. That channel’s continued presence is a counterpoint to the recent deterioration, but it does not mean the short-term decline has ended. Price has moved below the channel’s midpoint near $82,000, and the rejection from higher levels has been followed by a sequence of lower highs.

Daily chart: key support and channel levels

The next important test is whether buyers can defend the $75,000–$78,000 order block. A lower wick during the hack-related drop showed buying interest in this area, but the subsequent bounce has remained shallow. Holding the zone would leave open an attempt to regain the channel midpoint, while failure to hold it would put the market’s next chart supports into focus rather than confirm a renewed advance.

The daily analysis identifies a close below $75,000 as a warning that the channel’s lower boundary, near $73,000, could be tested. That boundary is described as the last nearby support beneath the order block. A break through this area would invalidate the structure that has carried Bitcoin higher since mid-year and increase the risk of a deeper correction. Neither outcome is confirmed while the channel remains intact.

Above current levels, Bitcoin would first need to recover the channel midpoint around $82,000. The broader chart then points to the $86,000–$90,000 supply zone, where price was rejected in late September. This sequence makes the nearby levels consequential in both directions: the demand block is under pressure, while the earlier supply area remains a potential obstacle if a rebound develops.

Four-hour chart shows sellers retaining control

The four-hour chart shows a more immediate weakening of structure. Bitcoin broke below the lower edge of a shorter ascending channel around October 23. Its rebound then stalled in the $80,000–$82,000 supply zone, where price effectively retested the broken trendline from below. The rejection was followed by a sharp drop as news of the Binance breach reached the market, leaving the short-term trend less supportive of buyers.

Buyers stepped in at $76,000, a demand level that sits within the daily order block, and Bitcoin recovered toward $79,000 before easing back near $78,000. That sequence shows a response at support, but it does not yet amount to a confirmed reversal. The price has not reclaimed the broken four-hour channel, and the recent rebound has not cleared the supply area that stopped the earlier recovery attempt.

A sustained move above $79,000 could bring the $80,000–$82,000 supply zone back into play. Reclaiming that zone, rather than merely touching it, would be needed to open the path toward $85,000, where the last significant rebound was rejected. These levels describe conditional chart scenarios, not guaranteed moves. Until the broken channel is recovered, the analysis expects rebounds to encounter overhead supply.

Rising Velocity adds an on-chain warning, not a verdict

On-chain Velocity, as described in the analysis, measures how quickly coins circulate relative to the total supply. Higher readings indicate coins are changing hands more frequently; lower readings are associated with longer holding periods and coins moving into dormant addresses. The metric is therefore a measure of circulation activity, not a direct account of the identities or motives of market participants.

Velocity declined from roughly 15.8 in early 2024 to around 12.1 in October 2025, during a period when Bitcoin advanced to an all-time high near $125,000. The analysis interprets that combination as consistent with more supply being held off the market. Since then, the direction has reversed: Velocity has climbed to approximately 14.6 even as Bitcoin’s price fell sharply.

That divergence may indicate previously idle coins returning to circulation and, in the source’s interpretation, looks more like redistribution than accumulation. It could weaken the scarcity dynamic associated with the 2025 rally, but Velocity alone cannot show who is buying or selling. If the metric keeps rising while BTC remains below $82,000, the $75,000 order block may face greater pressure; whether that zone holds remains unresolved.

Source: CryptoPotato