Ethereum (ETH) enters July 2026 trading near $1,570, close to multi-month lows, after recording its first run of three consecutive red quarterly candles in its history.

On-chain data and price charts now tell competing stories. Network usage keeps falling, yet large holders appear to be buying, which leaves July’s direction wide open.

ETH in July 2026: Active Addresses Fall to Fresh Lows

Glassnode data on active addresses points to weakening engagement. The 14-day moving average peaked near 795,000 in early February 2026. It has since dropped to roughly 420,000, a decline of about 46%.

The early move was unusual. Addresses climbed through January while prices fell, a sign of speculative churn rather than durable demand. Both metrics then rolled over together.

Through the spring, prices held up better than usage. Brief rebounds in active addresses during March, April, and May each failed to hold. The June reading marks the lowest on the chart, and the trend has not yet bottomed.

For this signal to flip, active addresses would need a sustained recovery rather than another short-lived spike.

Whale Address Count Climbs Into the Weakness

The address picture looks bleak. However, the whale data complicates that read. Glassnode’s count of addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 ETH spiked in the final days of June.

That move produced the greatest 30-day change on the chart, and it happened while the price sat at its lowest point. Accumulation into a low price can suggest that larger holders are positioning early.

External flow data supports the mixed signal. Some reports show whales adding tens of millions of dollars in ETH, while spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows through June. Bitmine chairman Tom Lee tied part of the recent drop to quarter-end fund behavior.

One caveat matters. A similar whale-count surge in late February coincided with a local top before price fell, so rising whale numbers have not been a clean buy signal this cycle.

3 Straight Red Quarters Mark Uncharted Territory

The quarterly view frames why the technical picture matters. CoinGlass data shared by analyst Ted Pillows shows ETH closing Q4 2025 down 28.28%, Q1 2026 down 29.26%, and Q2 2026 down 24.77%.

That run is the first stretch of three consecutive red quarters in the dataset, which begins in 2016. The longest prior streaks reached only two quarters, in 2018 and again in 2019.

The character of this decline also stands out. Rather than one violent crash, ETH has bled steadily across three roughly equal quarters. The broader market has softened alongside it.

Monthly Chart Tests a Key Fibonacci Level

The monthly chart shows ETH near a level that has mattered before. Price trades around $1,570, and a close here would mark the lowest monthly close since March 2023.

The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, drawn from the $881 low to the $4,956 high, sits at roughly $1,753. That zone acted as support on four prior occasions, and it lines up with the heaviest volume node on the profile.

Price now trades below that level on an intra-month basis. A monthly close beneath it would confirm the break, opening room toward $1,200 and then the $881 swing low. Monthly RSI sits near 40, so momentum is not yet oversold.

ETH Price Prediction Hinges on the $1,500 Line

The daily chart sharpens the near-term question. ETH has lost three layered support bands, near $2,375, $2,175, and $1,925, and each now acts as resistance.

Price has also broken below a descending channel and failed two retests of that broken structure in June. It is now holding just above a final demand zone around the psychological $1,500 mark.

Volume has faded through the decline, and Bollinger Band width sits at compressed levels. Low volatility often precedes a larger move, though compression signals magnitude rather than direction.

The setup leaves a clear binary. A daily close below $1,500 would expose the $1,200 area, while a reclaim of $1,753 would invalidate the bearish thesis. The prior monthly outlook flagged the same battle zone.

What Could Decide ETH in July 2026

The evidence pulls in two directions. The trend, the lost supports, and falling active addresses argue for caution. Meanwhile, whale accumulation and the volatility squeeze hint at a possible snapback.

Two levels frame the month. Holding $1,500 keeps a recovery toward $1,753 on the table, while losing it points lower. Roughly $10.63 billion in June options expiry has already cleared, which may reduce one source of pressure.

For now, the data suggests a market in balance rather than a confirmed move. July’s first weekly closes around $1,500 and $1,753 should indicate which side wins control.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Источник: BeInCrypto