US spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded another $296 million in net outflows over the past 24 hours, equal to roughly 5,050 BTC. BlackRock led the redemptions, with Grayscale, Fidelity, and ARK Invest also posting losses.

Glassnode data shows the sell-off has now reached $8.95 billion since May 7. Bitcoin trades near $61,600, up 2.4% in 24 hours, but flow data suggests the bounce rests on fragile ground.

ETF Outflows Total $8.95 Billion Across 34 Negative Days

Glassnode’s US spot ETF net flow data shows demand weakening since late September 2025. Daily inflows peaked above $1.2 billion back then. Since then, positive days have grown smaller and less frequent.

The decisive shift arrived on May 7. Since that date, the funds have posted only five positive sessions. The remaining 34 trading days were negative, draining $8.95 billion in total.

June alone accounted for $4.5 billion, the worst monthly outflow since the products launched in January 2024. Meanwhile, bitcoin fell 20.48% over the month, its steepest drop since June 2022.

In an X post, analyst That Martini Guy argued that the latest rebound changes little.

“Everyone got excited by yesterday’s bounce. But ETF selling hasn’t stopped. Funding is starting to shift, sentiment still looks fragile, and I don’t think the market structure has changed just yet.”

For the pressure to ease, the ETFs would need a sustained run of net inflows rather than isolated green days. So far, no such streak has appeared.

Coins Leave Exchanges, Yet Bitcoin Keeps Falling

Exchange balance data complicates the bearish picture. Glassnode’s net position change metric shows coins flowing out of exchanges since late May. Traders usually read such withdrawals as accumulation, because coins move into long-term storage.

However, history offers a warning. The current move is the third deep negative stretch since bitcoin’s all-time high in late 2025. The first ran from late October through December 2025. The second lasted from late January to early March 2026, when the metric dipped near minus $100 billion.

Each episode coincided with a continuation of the downtrend rather than a reversal (blue boxes). In contrast to the usual bullish reading, apparent accumulation has repeatedly failed to stop the decline. Deepening capitulation signals elsewhere on-chain tell a similar story.

Moreover, part of the withdrawal may reflect mechanics rather than fresh buying. Coins redeemed from ETFs can move between custody wallets and cold storage without touching order books. Weak US demand readings support that interpretation.

BTC Price Outlook Hinges on Slowing ETF Redemptions

The two datasets point to one conclusion. ETF flows, not exchange balances, currently set the marginal price of Bitcoin. Until redemptions slow, on-chain accumulation looks unable to absorb the selling.

BTC trades near $61,600 after a 2.4% daily gain. Nevertheless, the price has hovered just above $60,000 since mid-June. A decisive close below that area would confirm that redemption pressure still dominates the market.

Conversely, a sustained flip to net inflows could mark the first structural change since early May. Historically, flow reversals of that kind have preceded durable bottoms rather than followed them.

Until either signal appears, caution remains the sober reading of the data. The next leg depends on whether ETF holders stop selling before spot buyers give up.

Источник: BeInCrypto