Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland says the macro backdrop that punished digital currencies for four straight years is finally turning, pointing to patterns that came before crypto’s two biggest bull runs.

In a pair of posts on X, he argued that the market is entering a two- to three-year stretch of what he calls “max opportunity,” with risk appetite moving back toward crypto for the first time since 2016 and 2020.

A Repeating Four-Year Pattern

Hyland’s case rests on comparing three stretches he labels macro risk bear markets: 2014 to 2016, 2018 to 2020, and 2022 through 2026. In each of them, he says, crypto performed poorly while the wider risk backdrop stayed hostile, only for conditions to flip and set off the sector’s strongest runs. He’s now betting the current cycle is following the same script.

“Macro-Risk is now exiting the Bear Market for the first time since Mid-2016 & Mid-2020,” he wrote, adding that this kind of setup produced “max opportunity for the long term” both previous times it showed up.

He also pointed to two chart signals he sees as confirmation. Bitcoin dominance just posted a death cross for the first time since 2016 and 2020, which he treats as an early marker of the shift. He also expects altcoin dominance to follow with a golden cross this fall, something that he says would repeat what happened in those earlier cycles.

According to the market watcher, his own macro risk ratios turned at the same points in 2016 and 2020, and are turning again now, which is why he’s calling the next two to three years “the most optimal time” for crypto. However, his forecast should be taken as a market thesis and not a certainty, especially since crypto cycles have also historically been influenced by liquidity, investor sentiment, and broader economic conditions.

Wider Markets Still Sending Mixed Signals

Hyland’s call landed with Bitcoin (BTC) trading near $63,000 after earlier hitting a two-week high above $64,000, even after Strategy sold 3,588 BTC on Monday to fund dividends.

Analytics firm Swissblock described the price action as showing “signs of stabilization,” although it cautioned that a genuine recovery still needs buyers to keep showing up.

Elsewhere, analyst Credible Crypto has argued that altcoins trading 80% to 90% below their highs could outperform BTC if sentiment turns, pointing to long-term holders now controlling close to 80% of the flagship cryptocurrency’s supply. On Ethereum, trader Michaël van de Poppe said over the weekend that “the worst period for ETH is over” and cited a possible higher low against Bitcoin after three straight quarterly losses of more than 20% each.

Another market observer, Merlijn The Trader, separately flagged ETH’s dip to 0.026 against BTC, a level that foreshadowed a 230% run against Bitcoin last time it showed up. While none of these calls directly tie to Hyland’s thesis, the timing, with all landing within the same week, is hard to ignore.

Источник: CryptoPotato