SpaceX (SPCX) shares have fallen 18% from the peak they reached right after the offering. Those who bought the shares on the open market are now almost at zero. Market participants are wondering whether the maximum of the historic debut is already behind them.

On Thursday, trading closed at $184.98 — 3.6% lower than the day before. According to CNBC, the next day the purchases over the previous five trading sessions, adjusted for volume, amounted to $181.71. That is, buyers are just barely above the breakeven point — and yet on Tuesday the price at one point rose above $225.

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From $3 trillion — to 7th place

Over two days the company lost about $620 billion in capitalization — the value of SpaceX dropped from $3 trillion to about $2.37 trillion. With its recent lead the company had overtaken Amazon and Microsoft, taking fourth place in the world, but it has now slid to seventh, dropping below its competitor TSMC.

The reason for the drop was news from June 16: SpaceX announced the purchase of Anysphere, the developer of the AI coding tool Cursor. The $60 billion deal was entirely in stock. This led to a 3.4% dilution relative to SpaceX's valuation at the IPO — $1.77 trillion.

Morningstar analysts lowered the fair value of the shares from $63 to $62, noting that the deal slows the dilution of securities at the issuer, which had already become overvalued even without it. The analysts' maximum optimistic scenario assumes a value of $169 — below the market price.

The frenzy is subsiding

The drop turned out to be sharp, and this shows how much the initial surge rested on the frenzy of retail investors. According to Vanda Research, over the first three sessions retail buyers put $369.8 million into SPCX — four times more than went into Nvidia over the same period. But already on Thursday, June 18, demand fell sharply: by midday net retail purchases had dropped to $9.1 million.

Source: BeInCrypto