Ethereum has had a notable recovery from its June lows, reclaiming an important resistance zone while testing a major descending trendline on the higher timeframe. Although the latest rally has strengthened short-term sentiment, ETH is still approaching a cluster of technical barriers that could determine whether the recovery extends above $2K or transitions into another corrective phase.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, ETH has been trading within a broad descending channel that has defined price action for several months. The recent rebound from the $1.5K demand zone allowed the asset to reclaim the $1.8K support region.

The price is also on the verge of breaking above the channel’s upper boundary, which is closely followed by the descending 100-day moving average near the $2K area. This confluence has already attracted selling pressure, suggesting that sellers remain active around this technical barrier.

The next major resistance sits between $2K and $2.2K, where the 200-day moving average also converges from above. A confirmed breakout above the channel and a sustained move beyond $2.2K would represent a meaningful structural shift and could open the door toward higher recovery targets.

On the downside, the recently reclaimed $1.8K zone now acts as the first key support. Losing this level would once again expose the broader demand region around $1.5K, which previously triggered the latest bullish reversal.

ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The lower timeframe shows a much stronger bullish structure. ETH advanced inside a well-defined ascending channel after forming a clear double bottom near $1.5k and has been consistently printing higher highs and higher lows throughout the recovery.

The recent rally pushed the price above the $1.8K resistance zone before reaching the channel’s upper boundary around $1.95K. However, sellers defended this area, leading to a modest rejection from local highs.

As long as ETH holds above the $1.8K breakout zone, the current pullback appears more consistent with profit-taking than a confirmed trend reversal. Maintaining this support could allow buyers to attempt another move toward the major daily resistance cluster between $2K and $2.2K.

Conversely, a decisive breakdown below $1.8K would weaken the short-term structure and could trigger a deeper retracement toward the intermediate support around $1.72K, or even the order block located around $1.62K to $1.64K, where buyers previously stepped in.

On-Chain Analysis

The Exchange Reserve chart continues to paint a constructive longer-term picture. Ethereum reserves held across centralized exchanges have declined steadily, reaching approximately 15.3 million ETH, which is arguably the lowest reading over the past few years.

A persistent decline in exchange balances generally indicates that investors are withdrawing coins into self-custody or long-term storage rather than preparing to sell them immediately. This reduces the amount of readily available supply on exchanges and can provide a supportive backdrop if demand continues to recover.

While the falling exchange reserve does not guarantee immediate upside, the continued reduction in available supply complements the improving technical structure. If ETH successfully clears the overhead resistance between $2K and $2.2K while exchange balances remain on their current downtrend, the broader recovery could gain additional strength. Conversely, failure to overcome the higher-timeframe resistance may still result in a short-term correction despite the favorable on-chain backdrop.

Источник: CryptoPotato