US oil refiners are booming, and Wall Street’s 10th-ranked analyst just named three energy stocks to watch to play the run. The margin refiners earn by turning crude into fuel hit a record, and none of his three picks are the oil majors everyone knows.

That analyst is Raymond James’ Justin Jenkins, who has an 80% success rate.

He reiterated Buy on three mid-cap refiners, so BeInCrypto checked the money flow behind each to see which call holds up.

Delek US Holdings (NYSE: DK)

Delek is the most refining-focused of the three, with little diversification to steady other energy stocks on the list. That makes it the most direct bet on the record crack spread, the gap between what refiners pay for crude oil and what they earn on gasoline and diesel.

That spread hit a record near $59 a barrel in July, nearly triple where it started the year. So Delek can print cash even if crude goes nowhere.

Jenkins reiterated a Buy with a $70 price target on July 13. One more bank leans bullish. Goldman Sachs lifted its target to $73 on July 17.

JPMorgan, however, raised its number to $62 (already hit) but stayed on Hold. The stock is already up about 127% this year.

Meanwhile, the chart backs the call. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a proxy for institutional buying and selling, broke out of a falling channel in late June.

It then pushed above its early-March peak in mid-July. That shows large buyers accumulating just as Jenkins made his call.

Therefore, Delek offers the cleanest setup. Jenkins’ $70 target sits about 4% above the recent price near $67, and Goldman’s $73 is the more bullish case.

The main risk is the crack spread itself, since that’s where refiners make their money. Because Delek leans so heavily on refining, a sharp drop in it would hit the stock harder than the more diversified names, and spreads this wide rarely last.

HF Sinclair (NYSE: DINO)

HF Sinclair is the largest and steadiest of the trio, spanning refining, marketing, and renewables. Yet its bull case looks the most stretched.

Here, Jenkins is the outlier. He reiterated a Buy and a Street-high $95 target on July 13, while much of Wall Street sat on Hold. Evercore initiated coverage with a Hold rating, while Barclays and JPMorgan maintained neutral ratings.

The stock’s 99% run this year pushed its price past several targets.

However, the chart flashes a warning. CMF peaked in early May. As DINO kept making higher highs into July, money flow failed to follow. This bearish divergence, now below the 0.51 level that capped it in May, suggests the buying is fading.

A close above 0.51 would ease the concern.

Still, not everyone is cautious. Options desks flagged fresh January call buying on the stock.

So the reward looks thin for now. Jenkins’ $95 target implies only about 4% upside from the recent price near $92, and the divergence warns that momentum could stall.

Par Pacific Holdings (NYSE: PARR)

Par Pacific is the best performer, up about 129% this year. Its niche markets in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies keep its fuel insulated, which helped it ride the same margin wave.

This time, the banks agree on this energy stock to watch. Jenkins lifted his target to $85 on July 13, matching JPMorgan, while Mizuho reiterated Buy at $80 (already hit).

That rare alignment marks $85 as a shared ceiling. It also caps the upside, since the price near $80 already sits close.

Meanwhile, institutional buying still looks strong. CMF recently made a fresh high before easing, holding well above zero. That shows large investors kept accumulating through the July surge, unlike the divergence in HF Sinclair.

The catch is that record margins may already be priced in. Some strategists warn refiners have run too far, too fast.

However, more than half of Russian refining capacity is offline.

That supply squeeze could keep the crack spread high.

That is exactly the bet Jenkins is making across all three, and it is why an analyst with an 80% hit rate is pointing to small refiners rather than Exxon or Chevron.

Source: BeInCrypto