Ethereum (ETH) has printed its first sustained advance against Bitcoin (BTC) in almost a year, breaking out of the descending channel that capped the pair since August 2025.

Bitcoin dominance tells a more cautious story, however. The metric is climbing back to 60%, and analysts remain divided on whether a real altcoin season can start in 2026.

Ethereum Breaks Out Against Bitcoin as Price and Momentum Align

The ETH/BTC three-day chart shows a descending parallel channel in force since August 2025. The pair printed consistent lower lows and lower highs inside it for almost a year.

In July, the ratio finally closed above the channel’s upper boundary. It now trades near 0.0289, with Ethereum at $1,881, down 2.2% in 24 hours. Fresh whales accumulated 50,000 ETH this month as the ratio jumped 6%.

The breakout faces two obstacles overhead. The immediate resistance sits at 0.0316, while the next barrier waits at 0.0352. Moreover, the ratio still trades below the 200-day moving average (blue line). A reclaim of that line could open the road to the first resistance area.

If the pair pulls back, the nearest support stands at 0.0259. That level roughly coincides with the broken channel boundary, which may soon flip into confirmed support.

Momentum broke out first. The three-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) escaped a long-term falling wedge, a bullish pattern, at the end of June. Price followed weeks later, a sequence that often validates trend reversals.

The RSI now reads around 57. Therefore, it has cleared the neutral zone and holds room to run before overbought territory near 70.

Analyst Michael van de Poppe called the move the pair’s first real advance in over a year. Still, he expects Bitcoin to lead in the short term.

Bitcoin Dominance Defends 60% and Delays the Rotation Signal

The monthly Bitcoin dominance chart frames the bigger picture. A long-term descending trendline has capped the metric since 2017, and each touch (blue circle) has started an altcoin season. The first came in 2017 near 80%, and the second in 2021 near 73%.

The third touch arrived in mid-2025, when dominance was rejected at 66%. The metric then slipped below the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at 59.63%. However, it never reached the 0.382 level at 55.66%, let alone the 0.618 at 49.23%. A drop to those levels would put a full rotation in place.

The three-day chart sharpens the trigger. Dominance has moved sideways between 58% and 60.7% since August 2025. An ascending support line inside that range broke down at the end of May.

Dominance now retests the broken line from below, near 59.5%. The retest coincides with the long-term 0.236 Fibonacci level, creating a confluence of resistance. A rejection here could send the metric through the 58% floor and directly to 55.66%. In contrast, a reclaim would target 61% and delay the altcoin rotation, even as the index shows early momentum.

Benjamin Cowen, founder of IntoTheCryptoverse, offered a counterpoint in his contribution to BeInCrypto’s Market Intelligence expert council and the accompanying video analysis. He argues the classic rotation may never arrive this cycle.

“This is a cycle where Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoria.”

According to Cowen, an apathy top leaves no crowd to rotate into riskier assets. He points to 2019 as the closest parallel and keeps October 2026 as his base case for the cycle bottom.

What Would Confirm Altcoin Season 2026

The ETH/BTC charts suggest a rotation is loading. Price and momentum broke their downtrends within weeks of each other, and softer inflation has supported risk appetite.

The dominance charts demand patience, though. Bulls need dominance rejected near 59.6%, followed by a break under 58% and a slide to 55.66%. Until then, ETH/BTC holding above 0.0259 keeps the setup alive, while a dominance reclaim of 61% would hand the cycle back to bitcoin.

Source: BeInCrypto