Fidelity Digital Assets says the supply of Bitcoin (BTC) held by long-term investors has reached an all-time high. 

Research analyst Zack Wainwright treats that cohort as one of the clearest reads on investor conviction. Fidelity says the long-term holder data appear consistent with on-chain metrics that are approaching past-cycle bottom levels.

Why Fidelity Watches This Cohort

The asset manager noted that nearly 15 million coins have now sat unmoved for at least 155 days.

On-chain analysts use that 155-day threshold to separate long-term holders from short-term speculators. Coins that stay untouched past that mark are treated as patient capital: investors who tend to hold through volatility rather than sell into weakness. When this group keeps accumulating, it is usually read as a sign of underlying confidence in the asset.

That supply has historically expanded through bear markets and contracted through bull markets. It set its record on July 5, 2026, while prices stayed under pressure.

Nearly 40% of the cohort now sits at an unrealized loss. Most of these holders kept their exposure anyway, Wainwright wrote.

An unrealized loss means the current market price sits below the level at which those coins were acquired, so the loss exists only on paper until the holder actually sells. The fact that most of these investors have chosen not to sell, even while underwater, is what Fidelity points to as evidence of firm conviction rather than panic.

Bitcoin trades roughly 50% below its October 2025 peak of above 6,000. Earlier bear markets cut 70%, 80%, and even 90%. Wainwright reads that shallower decline as a sign of maturation.

Shallower drawdowns over successive cycles are often interpreted as a sign that a market is deepening. As liquidity, institutional participation, and long-term ownership grow, the same negative pressure tends to produce smaller peak-to-trough declines than it did in Bitcoin’s earlier, thinner years.

“A variety of on-chain metrics are approaching levels historically associated with bitcoin’s market cycle bottoms. Whether these signals ultimately mark a turning point remains to be seen, but the long-term holder data appears consistent with that sentiment as well,” Wainwright said. 

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Meanwhile, Benjamin Cowen, a member of BeInCrypto’s Market Intelligence experts council, puts the fourth-quarter bottoming window as a base case. His seasonal math suggests a low near ,000.

“The bear-market framework remains intact and the focus shifts from confirming the markdown to watching for the low,” he wrote.

Wainwright lands on the same open question. Fidelity’s data shows conviction holding firm, yet the firm will not say whether the bear market has reached its final stage.

August offers the next test. That month turned negative in all three prior midterm election years, with losses between 15% and 18%. Seasonal patterns like this offer historical context rather than certainty, and investors typically weigh them alongside on-chain signals and broader macro conditions before drawing conclusions.

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Source: BeInCrypto