When will the Bitcoin bear market conclude, allowing the cryptocurrency to finally shift back into a sustained uptrend? The answer to this question is perhaps one of the most debated topics in the space.

And while investors are eager to see the return of the bulls, some analysts warn that they may have to endure more downside pressure throughout the summer and wait for better days by year-end.

When Exactly?

In October last year, BTC exploded to a new all-time high of over $126,000. Since then, though, the market has entered a bearish phase that briefly dragged the asset below $60K, and it now trades around $64,000.

Fear is running high, investor morale is shattered, and interest has slipped to a very low level. Yet this is far from the first bear market to sweep through crypto, and many analysts believe the bottom will be reached later in 2026.

Ali Martinez claimed that if the 4-year cycle theory holds, BTC’s final floor could arrive between October 6 and October 16. The recurring pattern is mainly centered on Bitcoin’s halving, which occurs precisely every 210,000 blocks, or about 4 years. The concept is that the peak of the bull run arrives 12 to 18 months after the event and is followed by a sharp decline due to selling pressure and loss of momentum.

Eventually, the sell-off transitions into an accumulation phase prior to the next halving, with the upcoming one scheduled for the spring of 2028. Not long ago, CryptoPotato reported that BTC’s past behavior across different stages signals a potential bottom between October 4 and October 17 – a window which aligns almost perfectly to Martinez’s forecast.

But How Low?

Before the cycle bottoms, BTC holders may have to withstand a harsh final move south. According to X user Pepesso, BTC might fall to $49,000 before entering an accumulation phase.

“The real move higher likely won’t start until early 2027, once that bottom is fully in,” they added.

Crypto Lens issued an even more skeptical prediction, envisioning an “inevitable final capitulation” to $39,000 by October. After that, though, the analyst expects that the price could skyrocket to $150K by February next year.

For their part, BATMAN noted a striking parallel between Bitcoin’s current market structure and that seen in the autumn of 2022, which was followed by a meltdown to around $16,000.

Of course, one must keep in mind that the collapse was driven largely by the demise of the once-prominent crypto exchange FTX. Over the past several weeks, leading platforms like BitMEX and BitMart announced they would shut down operations, yet the disclosures have had little to no impact on the price of the primary cryptocurrency.

Source: CryptoPotato