XRP trades near $1.09 after analysts flagged monthly momentum readings more extreme than the 2020 COVID crash, reviving debate over whether the bottom has arrived.

The token sits roughly 72% below its record high, leaving traders split on what comes next.

The Technical Signals Behind the Oversold Debate

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures whether an asset has been bought or sold too aggressively over a given period. Readings below 30 typically signal oversold conditions worth watching.

Analyst Ash Crypto noted that XRP’s monthly reading has fallen below levels recorded during the March 2020 collapse. The token also touched a two-year low near $1 last month.

Crypto analyst ChartNerdTA highlighted a separate signal entirely. XRP appears to be interacting with the middle regression band of its Gaussian channel, a zone that preceded extended accumulation ranges in earlier cycles.

That channel support currently sits near $0.88. The level should gradually rise over time, potentially forming a dynamic floor beneath future price action.

Derivatives data adds another dimension. Some analysts observed open interest falling while prices climbed, a pattern consistent with short positions being closed or liquidated.

“$XRP is rising, but OI is decreasing. Short positions are being liquidated or closed during the current rise. Bearish bettors are cutting their losses during the rise,” crypto analyst CW said on X.

Short covering can fuel sharp squeezes, though the effect rarely lasts. Sustained rallies generally require fresh buying from long-side participants rather than exiting bears.

Recent performance has somewhat complicated the bearish narrative. XRP closed one of its strongest months on record in July 2026, advancing roughly 6.83% across the period.

Seasonality now works against momentum, however. August ranks as the flattest month in the token’s history, averaging returns of just 0.43%.

Is the Bottom Truly In for XRP

Fund flows reinforce that caution. Spot exchange-traded products recorded zero movement on 11 of 17 trading days during July, signaling muted institutional appetite, according to SoSoValue data.

Exchange outflows have also slowed down considerably. Fewer tokens leaving trading platforms suggests accumulation momentum has cooled compared with earlier in the year.

A decisive three-day close above $1.22 would signal genuine breakout potential. Such a move could revive institutional interest and restart meaningful inflows into the spot products.

Losing $1.01 would instead open the door to further weakness. Thin selling volume, though, suggests limited conviction among sellers at current levels.

“A decline below $1.00 would align RSI positioning with genuine historical macro bottom structures,” analyst ChartNerd noted.

The broader picture offers context for those levels. XRP has a market capitalization of nearly $68 billion, ranking sixth overall, with more than 62.5 billion tokens circulating.

Daily trading volume exceeds $1.2 billion, indicating reasonable liquidity despite the sideways conditions. Skeptics still argue that oversold readings alone cannot confirm a genuine cycle bottom.

Whether this marks a lasting floor depends on macro conditions, regulatory developments around Ripple, and the return of real buying pressure across the wider market.

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Source: BeInCrypto