Lumber futures have fallen for 10 consecutive sessions, their longest losing streak since December 2024. The lumber price trades near $586 after a sharp rejection from the $650 resistance zone.

The slide matters well beyond the timber trade. Lumber demand tracks US homebuilding almost one to one, and the streak arrived while builder confidence sits near multi-year lows.

Why Lumber Price Is Falling Despite a Supply Squeeze

Barchart data shows lumber has closed lower for 10 straight days, a streak unseen since December 2024. Two weeks ago, however, the market told the opposite story.

Futures touched $650 per thousand board feet on July 28, a 12-month high. The rally had gained over 30% from December lows as supply shocks piled up.

The Wall Street Journal reported that steep duties on Canadian lumber, wildfires, and sawmill closures had cut supply and lifted prices. More than 900 wildfires burned across Western Canada, the source of most US softwood imports.

Combined duties near 35% also add roughly $10,000 to the cost of a new American home, according to the NAHB. Nevertheless, prices collapsed the moment demand weakness took over.

US construction spending on single-family projects fell 3.3% year-over-year in June, per TradingEconomics. Therefore, a market falling this hard against a constrained supply base points to demand destruction, not oversupply.

US Housing Market Cracks Keep Widening

The demand rot shows up across housing data. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) fell to 34 in July, its 15th straight month below 50. That is the longest weak stretch since 2012.

Meanwhile, 37% of builders cut prices in July, at an average discount of 6%. Robert Dietz, chief economist at the NAHB, described the pressure directly in the group’s July report.

“Affordability remains the home building industry’s primary challenge.”

Slower-moving data confirms the trend. The median sales price of US homes peaked near $440,000 in late 2022, according to FRED. It has since drifted to roughly $410,000, the longest stretch of price weakness since 2008.

Residential construction absorbs an estimated 70% to 80% of North American wood demand. Consequently, lumber acts as a real-time gauge of housing health, and it now joins other unusual indicators flashing late-cycle warnings. Prediction markets have already lifted US recession odds this year.

Lumber Price Prediction Hinges on $580 Support

On the daily chart, lumber broke down from the $650 resistance region after repeated failures in late July. The decline also cut through an ascending trendline that had supported the market since December 2025.

Lumber trades at $585.75 at the time of writing, down 0.9% on the day and pressing the $580 support zone. If buyers defend this area, the setup may favor a relief bounce.

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in oversold territory at its lowest since September 2025, when a durable rebound followed. However, the broken trendline near $590 may now act as resistance and cap any recovery.

In contrast, a decisive close below $580 would expose the next support at $565, about 3.5% lower. That zone has stopped several sell-offs since late 2025.

Beyond the chart, the main catalyst remains the Federal Reserve. Expected rate cuts could pull mortgage rates lower and revive builder demand for wood. A deeper housing slowdown, meanwhile, could ripple into risk assets, including crypto.

The next several sessions should reveal whether oversold conditions spark a rebound or the housing warning grows louder.

Source: BeInCrypto