Ever since bitcoin started to lose value rapidly and consistently in Q4 last year, the main question within the cryptocurrency community is how low it can go. The next one was: when and where it will bottom out.

Analysts began speculating after each leg down. At first, it was $60,000 when BTC dipped to that level in February. Months later, though, it crashed to $59,000, $58,000, and even slightly below that on July 1. As such, the bottom figures have slightly changed. Now, popular analyst Rekt Fencer brought some historical figures to outline the exact date.

October 2026: Here We Go

In an August 13 tweet, the market commentator outlined that there are 53 days left (now 51 since two days have already passed) until this market slumber and sluggishness end. They based this prediction on previous BTC cycles, as bull markets lasted approximately 1,064 days, while the subsequent bear phases required roughly 364 days to find their ultimate bottom. The pattern sounds simple, but it has been surprisingly consistent.

Bitcoin’s bull cycle from the 2015 bottom to its 2017 peak lasted exactly 1,064 days. The painful bear market needed another 364 days before the cryptocurrency finally bottomed in December 2018.

History almost perfectly repeated itself from that 2018 bottom to the November 2021 peak. Guess what: another 364-day decline followed that culminated in the 2022 bear-market low.

It gets better. BTC’s latest bull cycle ran from late 2022 until October 2025. Yes, another approximately 1,064 days. If the second half of this pattern repeats as accurately as the first, Rekt Fencer believes the next bottom will arrive on October 5, 2026.

October in Focus

The screenshot reshared by Rekt Fencer has been a popular one in the crypto community. The reason for this is its surprising accuracy. The previous two major BTC bear markets required approximately 363 and 376 days, respectively, to move from their cycle peaks to eventual capitulation lows.

Applying that range to Bitcoin’s October 2025 ATH produces a potential bottoming window between roughly October 4 and 17 this year. Ali Martinez recently outlined almost the same possibility, but his dates ranged between October 6 and 16.

There’s an obvious problem with relying too heavily on particular calendar patterns. BTC’s previous cycles developed under entirely different macroeconomic environments. Today’s market includes spot ETFs, enormous institutional holders, corporate treasuries, a different regulatory landscape, and far greater integration with TradFi.

Interest rates, liquidity, ETF flows, geopolitical developments, and Fed policy could easily break even the most accurate pattern. As such, October 5 (or 6-16) shouldn’t be treated as some predetermined date on which BTC is guaranteed to print its lowest candle before it explodes to new peaks within days, weeks, or even months.

But then again, it’s always good to have a North Star, and October 2026 has quickly become the month every crypto investor has circled on the calendar.

Source: CryptoPotato