Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong says crypto spot trading is close to its next bull market, citing prior bear cycles that each ran roughly 370 to 380 days.

He spoke on CNBC after President Donald Trump hosted crypto executives and regulators at the White House. Bitcoin (BTC) has since climbed above $78,000.

Trading Activity Had Been Sliding for Months

Armstrong’s call follows a long stretch of thinning volumes and volatile prices. Spot turnover across 14 major exchanges dropped 21.7% in July to $429.0 billion from $547.9 billion in June, according to Wu Blockchain.

Every one of the 14 venues posted a monthly decline. Binance led with $196.5 billion, or 45.8% of the total. Coinbase recorded a 26.4% drop, the second steepest after Bitfinex at 59.7%.

Derivatives cooled too, falling 11.1% to $3.03 trillion. However, the futures-to-spot ratio climbed to 7.06x from 6.21x, showing traders leaned harder into leverage.

Sentiment also stayed depressed well into August, with the Fear and Greed Index sitting at 29 on August 13.

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A Bond Market Move Started the Turn

The mood shifted sharply on August 19. The Treasury doubled its bond buyback operations to at least $4 billion each and raised them from two to four per quarter, a plan that starts September 9.

Yields dropped on the news. The 10-year note closed 5.7 basis points lower at 4.647%, while the 30-year fell 9 basis points to 5.196%, according to CNBC.

Furthermore, President Donald Trump suggested that a sizable government purchase of Bitcoin has been discussed. Bitcoin has gained roughly 22% since that day and traded near $78,700 on Saturday. 

Sentiment has flipped with it, and the Fear and Greed Index reached 71 at press time.

Armstrong Builds His Bull Case Around the Clock and the Calendar

Armstrong’s argument for a bull market with the cycle length. He said spot crypto trading has been in a bear market for about a year, and that each prior bear phase lasted roughly 370 to 380 days.

“We’re basically coming right up against that where people, you know, they’re going to say, well, this one’s about over. It’s time for the next bull run in crypto,” he stated.

Two catalysts sit on top of that. Armstrong pointed to the September 15 Senate vote for the CLARITY Act and to October through December, months he described as traditionally strong for Bitcoin under halving cycles.

“So I think there’s a good chance we’re on the cusp of the next bull market for spot trading in crypto,” he said.

Nonetheless, analyst Benjamin Cowen still puts a “decent chance” of one final selloff if prior midterm years repeat.

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Source: BeInCrypto