Grayscale Research says Zcash (ZEC) has a real chance of capturing Bitcoin’s (BTC) market share, citing three features that the largest digital currency lacks.
The note landed as the asset manager launched the first spot ZEC exchange-traded product (ETP), and the token hit its highest price since 2018.
Bitcoin Controls 93% of the Currencies Sector
Grayscale sorts crypto assets by use case through its Crypto Sectors framework. Bitcoin accounts for 93% of the Currencies category by market capitalization.
Head of Research Zach Pandl wrote that earlier rivals such as Litecoin (LTC) did not mount a serious challenge. He added that deep network effects have kept rivals small. Many investors never diversify past Bitcoin inside the category, he added.
The gap remains wide today. Bitcoin trades near $78,645, with a market cap of roughly $1.58 trillion.
Zcash sits far behind, with ZEC trading near $790 and a market value of about $13.3 billion. That ranks it 12th overall.
The token is therefore worth less than 1% of Bitcoin. It reached that level after rising roughly 19-fold over the past year.
Grayscale reads that distance as room for competition rather than evidence against it.
The 3 Features Grayscale Says Bitcoin Lacks
Pandl framed Zcash as a second mover with advantages that Bitcoin could not adopt at launch. Financial privacy tops the list, which he tied to the spread of AI-powered surveillance.
Second, Zcash developers continue to work on cybersecurity risks, including future quantum threats to classical cryptography. The third feature is the “intents” technology in modern wallets.
“Zcash does not require widespread merchant adoption—you (or your AI agent) can use it as a private asset hub with universal connectivity through intents,” Pandl said.
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Grayscale Models ZEC at $8,109 on a 10% Bitcoin Share
Grayscale modeled what those features could be worth. Using a five-year supply estimate, the firm put ZEC at $1,622 if it reaches 2% of Bitcoin’s market share, and at $8,109 if it reaches 10%.
ZEC traded near $790 on Friday, so those scenarios imply gains of roughly 105% and 927%. Grayscale called the projections hypothetical and illustrative.
The firm still labeled the asset high-risk and warned that any gains would not be linear. Pandl acknowledged that transparency, simplicity, and liquidity support Bitcoin’s position.
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Source: BeInCrypto
