After its strongest August since 2017, Bitcoin (BTC) has faced renewed volatility in September as hawkish Fed signals and strong jobs data pressure risk assets.

Yet, the daily chart has flashed a key bullish signal: a golden cross that bulls have awaited for almost a year. The setup has sparked optimism among analysts that the bear market may finally be over. 

But is the signal strong enough to confirm a lasting trend reversal?

Analysts at BloFin note this is the first such crossover since the death cross of November 2025. In Bitcoin’s history, the same setup has usually preceded significant rallies. However, the analysts argued that critical confirmation is still missing.

Bitcoin’s Golden Cross Comes With a Weekly Asterisk

A golden cross forms when a shorter-term moving average moves above a longer-term one. Traders read it as a sign that a trend is turning up.

Bitcoin last recorded a golden cross in May 2025, and the asset went on to set a new all-time high in October. It gained more than 16% during that period. 

BloFin’s confirmation framework sits on the weekly chart rather than the daily one. The desk uses the 200-week moving average (200W MA) to identify where long-term bottoms form, and treats the 50-week moving average (50W MA) as the stronger test of a new trend.

Bitcoin trades above its 200W MA and below its 50W MA. It has met the first condition but not the second. 

Why the 200-Week Moving Average Matters For Bitcoin Price Direction

Bitcoin has spent most of its history above the 200W MA, and its lowest prices in a cycle have generally formed around the level. That happened in 2015 and 2018, and BTC briefly returned to the area during the March 2020 crash.

The 2022 cycle broke from that precedent. Bitcoin fell below the 200W MA and stayed there while the market absorbed a series of major deleveraging events. The FTX collapse added further pressure later that year.

BTC set its cycle low beneath the indicator, then recovered and reclaimed the level during the subsequent rebound.

According to BloFin, the 200W MA has never posted a weekly decline. Four years of long-term appreciation have kept the average moving higher.

Bitcoin’s 200W MA Differs From Stocks and Gold

That steady climb is not a general property of long-term averages. BloFin Research noted that the S&P 500’s 200-week MA has lost momentum during prolonged periods of weak performance.

The index stagnated for parts of the 1960s and 1970s. The dot-com crash and the 2008 crisis then prolonged weakness from 2000 to 2012.

Gold followed a similar pattern. After the metal peaked in 2011, its 200W MA flattened and eventually turned lower during the multi-year decline that followed.

Trading above the 200W MA still does not answer whether the bear market has ended. Bitcoin can consolidate near the level for months before a durable recovery takes shape, as it did through 2022 and 2023.

The 50-Week Bullish Signal Bitcoin Has Yet To Reclaim

Bitcoin’s past cycles give traders a stronger reason to watch the 50W MA. The level has repeatedly separated major recoveries from temporary relief rallies. 

Bitcoin lost this average during the downturns of 2014, 2018, late 2021, and late 2025.

The opposite happened during cycle recoveries. Bitcoin reclaimed the 50W MA in 2015, 2019, and 2023, and each time a longer-term uptrend followed.

A golden cross can signal improving momentum on the daily chart. Reclaiming the 50W MA would extend that improvement to the weekly trend BloFin uses to date cycle turns.

A weekly close above the level would be the first step. Holding it would show that resistance has turned into support.

BloFin flags a trade-off in waiting for that. By the time Bitcoin reclaims the 50W MA, the price may already sit well above its cycle low.

Traders who wait for the confirmation may miss part of the initial rebound. What they gain is stronger evidence that the market has left its previous bear-market structure behind.

Source: BeInCrypto