Ethereum (ETH) exchange supply has fallen to roughly 15.5 million coins, the lowest reading in years. Meanwhile, MVRV momentum turned positive in late August.

ETH trades near $2,464 after a 0.87% decline over 24 hours. The token holds above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $2,438.85, a level that capped rallies from March through May.

Ethereum Exchange Supply Drops to a Multi-Year Low

Glassnode data shows total ETH held across all exchanges at roughly 15.5 million coins. That marks a decline of about 38% from the May 2023 peak near 25.2 million. Most of the drawdown arrived after June 2025, when balances still sat close to 21.5 million.

However, the trend alone has proved a weak timing tool. Exchange balances fell steadily from September 2025 through June 2026. Over that same window, ETH slid from about $4,850 to roughly $1,550.

Shrinking supply, therefore, looks like a condition rather than a signal. It removes sellable float without setting a direction.

MVRV Momentum Turns Positive for the First Time Since November 2025

That missing direction may now have arrived. Ethereum’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio sits near 1.05, above its 160-day moving average at roughly 0.88.

The crossover happened in the second half of August. It ended a negative momentum phase that ran for about nine months from November 2025.

The moving average has also stopped falling and has begun to curve higher. Historically, that shift separates durable regime changes from brief whipsaws. Still, the signals remain roughly three weeks old.

ETH Price Prediction and the $2,438 Line That Decides It

ETH now trades at $2,464.81, down 0.87% on the day, with a market capitalization near $300.8 billion. Price sits just above the 0.618 retracement at $2,438.85. That zone acted as resistance from mid-March to mid-May and now appears to support.

Volume has declined every week since the late-August surge. The Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP) also sits near the floor of its range. Compression of that kind usually precedes expansion, although it does not indicate direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads about 60, cooling from roughly 80 in late August.

A sustained hold could open the 0.5 retracement at $2,919.89, roughly 18% higher. In contrast, a loss of $2,438.85 leaves little structure until $1,980. That gap makes the current outlook unusually binary.

The two on-chain readings supply the directional lean that compression cannot. Ethereum has spent more than a year losing exchange float without reward. The difference now is that valuation momentum has turned alongside it. A drop back below the 160-day average would remove that support.

Source: BeInCrypto