A member of technical staff on OpenAI’s Safety Oversight team put the odds of human extinction at 70% within three years unless AI labs slow down or regulators step in.

Marcus Williams, who joined the company in May 2025, made the call on X. He posted the warning first, then attached a number when another user pushed him for one.

How the Human Extinction Estimate Landed

Without AI regulation or a coordinated slowdown between labs, Williams wrote, human extinction in the next few years looks very likely.

Another user then turned it into a wager, offering $10,000 in Microsoft shares against OpenAI stock over five years. Williams answered with a percentage.

“70% in the next 3 years if there isn’t regulation/slowdown although i think regulation/slowdown is very possible”

However, the hedge matters as much as the number. Williams calls a regulation or a slowdown very possible, so he does not treat the outcome as settled.

Washington Is Already Moving on AI Risk

Source: BeInCrypto