Cathie Wood says a single Starship launch could generate $1 billion in revenue, a projection that would make the $1.75 trillion SpaceX IPO look cheap in hindsight.

The ARK Invest founder tied that figure to Elon Musk’s goal of 10,000 flights a year by 2030. Her post followed fresh data on how much revenue Starlink earns per unit of launched capacity.

Cathie Wood Calls the SpaceX IPO a Deep Value Bargain

The math starts with Starlink. An ARK Invest analyst puts Starlink connectivity revenue near $19 million a year per terabit per second (Tbps) of network capacity. One Starship carries roughly 61 Tbps, so a full load adds close to $1 billion in recurring Starlink revenue rather than a one-off launch fee.

Multiply that by 10,000 launches a year, and Starship alone would bring in $10 trillion. Therefore, Wood argues, buyers of the $1.75 trillion listing will look back on it as deep value.

That step assumes every flight carries Starlink capacity. Musk, however, has framed the 10,000 target against commercial air travel, a transport business that earns no connectivity revenue.

Early investors have little to show so far. SPCX priced at $135 in June and closed its first session at $161. The stock has since spent weeks below its IPO price.

Starship Revenue Math Rests on 10,000 Flights a Year

The revenue per Tbps is already sliding. ARK data puts it at $21 million in 2023, $23 million in 2024, and $19 million in 2025. The analyst says that decay is expected as capacity grows.

Launch cadence is the wider gap. Falcon 9 flew 165 times last year, while Starship has flown twice since the June listing. Both flights stayed suborbital, so the V3 satellites released in July re-entered and burned up within roughly 20 minutes.

The next mission aims to reach Earth orbit for the first time and carries 26 operational V3 units. That flight would also become the first Starship launch to earn commercial revenue.

Wood is not the loudest bull on the stock either. Dan Held sees falling launch costs pushing SpaceX toward a $100 trillion valuation within two decades. ARK, meanwhile, keeps adding to its position.

Still, $10 trillion a year would top the output of every economy except the United States and China. For now, the bargain call rests on a flight rate Starship has yet to reach.

Source: BeInCrypto