Galaxy Research Declares End of Bitcoin Bear Market

Galaxy Research Declares End of Bitcoin Bear Market

Galaxy Research has released a report suggesting that Bitcoin's bear market officially ended in June 2026, marking the beginning of an accumulation phase for the cryptocurrency. The report indicates that Bitcoin was trading near $80,000 at the time of the analysis, which is approximately 35% lower than its peak in October 2025. This analysis is significant as it provides a framework for understanding Bitcoin's price movements and potential future trends, especially in light of the recent volatility in the cryptocurrency market.

The report outlines four key arguments supporting the assertion that Bitcoin has transitioned from a bear market to an accumulation phase: technical indicators, market positioning, fundamental analysis, and sentiment. Galaxy Research emphasizes the importance of technical analysis, particularly the behavior of Bitcoin's 200-week and 50-week moving averages. Historically, the 200-week average has acted as a support level during bear markets, while the 50-week average has served as a resistance level. The recent price movements suggest that Bitcoin has reclaimed the 50-week average, which could indicate a bullish trend ahead.

Galaxy's analysis of Bitcoin's technical indicators reveals that the cryptocurrency tested the 200-week moving average in June 2026 and managed to hold above it. The report notes that the worst weekly close was only 4.7% below this critical support level. Furthermore, Bitcoin has closed above the 50-week average for five consecutive weeks as of mid-October 2026. Historical data shows that similar reclaims have often led to significant price increases, with past instances resulting in gains ranging from 55% to nearly 1,500% within a year.

Technical Indicators Support Market Recovery

In addition to technical indicators, Galaxy Research highlights changes in market positioning among institutional investors. The report notes that asset managers' net long positions in CME Bitcoin futures have decreased by 57% since the all-time high in October 2025. This decline in long positions indicates a shift in sentiment among institutional traders, who may be reassessing their strategies in light of recent market conditions. Conversely, some institutions have increased their holdings, suggesting a mixed outlook among market participants.

The report also identifies specific institutional players who have reduced their Bitcoin holdings significantly. Notable firms such as Millennium Management, Goldman Sachs, and Brevan Howard have cut their spot ETF holdings by as much as 100% between September 2025 and June 2026. This reduction has contributed to a net decrease of 68,000 BTC across all 2,200 filers. However, the report notes that other institutions, including Morgan Stanley and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council, have increased their positions, adding a total of 87,000 BTC since the June low.

Galaxy Research's fundamental analysis focuses on the broader economic environment, particularly U.S. fiscal conditions. As of October 20, 2026, U.S. federal debt reached $40.44 trillion, with a fiscal deficit of $1.99 trillion for the year. The report argues that the government's need to refinance this debt at higher interest rates could lead to inflationary pressures, which may benefit Bitcoin as a hedge against currency devaluation. Additionally, the report highlights the increasing borrowing related to artificial intelligence, which is expected to reach $570 billion this year, further complicating the fiscal landscape.

Market Positioning and Institutional Trends

On the sentiment front, Galaxy draws parallels between the current market environment and previous cycles in 2015-2016 and 2018-2019, when Bitcoin was largely dismissed by mainstream finance. During those periods, Bitcoin reached cycle lows before experiencing significant recoveries. The report suggests that the current focus on stablecoins and tokenization, rather than Bitcoin itself, mirrors those earlier cycles. This sentiment could indicate a potential turning point for Bitcoin as interest in the cryptocurrency begins to resurface.

Despite the optimistic outlook presented by Galaxy Research, there are notable risks that could impact Bitcoin's trajectory. The report sets a critical threshold for its bullish view: a weekly close below the 50-week moving average, currently around $76,540, that is not regained within a month. Such a scenario could signal renewed bearish sentiment and further price declines. Additionally, the report highlights concerns regarding AI-enabled thefts and the potential risks posed by quantum computing, although it notes that no relevant quantum threats currently exist.

Galaxy's analysis also emphasizes the importance of monitoring Bitcoin's price movements in relation to its historical performance. The report indicates that the current drawdown of 53% is the shallowest in Bitcoin's history, suggesting that the market may be more resilient than in previous cycles. However, the firm cautions that the gains following past bear market lows have diminished over time, indicating that while a recovery may be underway, it may not reach the same heights as in earlier cycles.

Fundamental Factors and Risks Ahead

The implications of Galaxy Research's findings are significant for both retail and institutional investors. If Bitcoin has indeed entered an accumulation phase, it could present opportunities for investors looking to capitalize on potential price increases in the coming months. However, the mixed signals from institutional investors and the broader economic environment suggest that caution is warranted. Investors should remain vigilant and consider the potential risks outlined in the report.

As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, the insights provided by Galaxy Research will be closely watched by market participants. The interplay between technical indicators, market positioning, and fundamental factors will likely shape Bitcoin's price movements in the near future. Investors will need to navigate these complexities while keeping an eye on macroeconomic trends that could influence the broader market.

In conclusion, Galaxy Research's assertion that Bitcoin's bear market has ended is based on a comprehensive analysis of various factors. While the report presents a compelling case for an accumulation phase, uncertainties remain regarding market sentiment and potential risks. As Bitcoin approaches critical price levels, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the cryptocurrency can sustain its upward momentum or if it will face renewed challenges.

Source: BitcoinMagazine