Bitcoin’s Bull-Market Signals Held After Binance’s $6.3 Billion Hack

Bitcoin’s trend indicators stayed firm after the Binance hack

Binance disclosed a hack on October 29 that drained about $6.3 billion across 10 blockchains, making it the largest crypto hack on record in the supplied account. The scale of the incident put Bitcoin’s market response under scrutiny. Yet the weekly close showed a comparatively modest decline: Bitcoin ended the week 2.9% lower, a move that did not by itself erase the chart’s broader positive signals.

The weekly decline was similar to gold’s 3% fall over the same stretch, according to the figures cited by analyst Willy Woo. The comparison offers context for the immediate market reaction, rather than proof that the hack had no effect. In 2022, the FTX collapse coincided with Bitcoin falling 25% during a bear market. That much larger drop did not recur in the week after Binance’s breach.

Binance pledged to cover all losses and began phased withdrawals on November 1, but the source does not detail the final resolution or the full effects on users and markets. Ash Crypto’s view that a 20% decline can occur during a Bitcoin bull market supplies another comparison: the hack-week loss was far smaller. These observations support a resilient reading of the chart, without establishing that risk has passed.

A large breach, but a limited weekly decline

A second signal is Bitcoin’s run of seven consecutive weekly closes above its 50-week moving average. The streak followed a September reclaim of that level, which came after Bitcoin had spent 45 weeks below it. The latest close therefore continued a developing trend rather than marking a single isolated move. Whether the line continues to hold is a practical test for the bullish interpretation.

Galaxy research head Alex Thorn had linked the September reclaim to past cycle bottoms, saying historically that regaining the 50-week average had been strong confirmation that bear-market lows were in. That historical pattern is evidence analysts use to frame the current chart, not a guarantee about what follows. The available information does not establish that prior cycles will repeat, or that Bitcoin cannot fall back under the average.

At the time of the reported market snapshot, Bitcoin traded at $78,307, up 0.65% over 24 hours. The 50-week moving average stood near $75,602, leaving the price about 3.6% above it. This margin shows that the price was still on the higher side of the indicator, while also putting the level close enough to remain relevant. The figures are a snapshot, not a later market update.

Longer-term indicators remained above key thresholds

Monthly performance complicates the picture. Bitcoin gained about 43% across July, August and September, according to Coinglass data, then ended October down 7.32%. October was its first monthly loss since June. The decline interrupted a run of gains, but it did not, in the cited analysis, push the 14-month relative strength index below 50. The change in direction and the still-positive momentum reading point to different parts of the same chart.

The 14-month RSI had stayed above 50 for three consecutive months, according to analyst PlanB’s chart. RSI measures momentum on a scale from zero to 100; readings over 50 indicate that gains outweighed losses across the measured period. PlanB interprets the streak as the beginning of a new bull market. That is an analyst’s reading of the indicator, not an independently confirmed market phase, and a single losing month does not settle the question.

Taken together, the weekly average and monthly RSI show why some analysts see the hack-week decline as a stress test that Bitcoin’s trend withstood. But they are not measures of every market participant’s position or of future performance. October’s loss remains a break from the prior three-month advance, while the RSI offers a slower-moving view. The indicators support a case for resilience; they do not remove the possibility of further weakness.

ETF losses and election history leave the next test open

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows supplied a less reassuring signal. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643.33 million in outflows on October 30, the first full session after the hack. That single day erased four days of inflows and left the week about $202 million in the red. The figures indicate net withdrawals over the period, even as Bitcoin’s weekly decline stayed limited. They show that price action and fund flows did not tell the same story.

Glassnode data put the average cost basis of US spot ETF holders near $82,308, above Bitcoin’s reported $78,307 price. The market price was therefore about 4.9% below that average, leaving the typical holder represented by the figure underwater. Separately, Bitcoin remained 10.4% below its January 1 level, according to Coinglass. A move above $82,308 would return the average ETF holder to profit at that reference point, but no such recovery was assured.

The US midterm election on November 3 adds a calendar event, not a reliable forecast. Bitcoin closed November higher in 10 of 16 years, with a median gain of 10.3%, but midterm years split evenly: two gains and two losses. The losing years, 2018 and 2022, brought declines of 36.41% and 16.23% during bear markets. A weekly close above the 50-week average and the $87,500 resistance marked by Ash Crypto are among the next chart tests; their outcomes remain uncertain.

Source: BeInCrypto