Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Price Rises Above $65,000 as ETF Outflows Slow, Iran Deal and Fed Pull in Opposite Directions

Bitcoin price climbed above $65,000 Monday morning, caught between a sixth straight week of spot ETF outflows, a hawkish Federal Reserve debut, and a U.S.-Iran peace deal that gave risk assets a short-lived lift.

The move higher came as U.S. and Iranian officials reported progress at peace talks in Switzerland, building on last week’s signed memorandum of understanding that formally ended more than 100 days of conflict. 

The deal reopened the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil flows, and sent crude prices to three-month lows. The initial geopolitical relief pushed the bitcoin price to $66,230 late last week before the macro picture reasserted itself.

That reassertion came in the form of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose first FOMC meeting landed as a hawkish reset. Warsh expressed a strict commitment to returning inflation to the 2% target — a stance shaped in part by May CPI coming in at 4.2%, well above target. 

CME FedWatch now puts the probability of a rate hike at the July meeting at roughly 36%, with markets pricing at least one 25-basis-point increase before year-end. The U.S. dollar index recovered to the 100.6–100.8 range in the wake of the Fed’s tone, a headwind that has historically weighed heavily on the bitcoin price.

Against that backdrop, spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. logged a sixth consecutive week of net outflows. Funds bled $226.8 million in the week ending June 18, according to SoSoValue data, bringing the six-week total to $5.94 billion — the longest consecutive weekly outflow streak on record. U.S. spot ETFs have now shed a record $6.35 billion over the past 30 days, per Galaxy Research.

The pace of outflows, however, has slowed. The first week of June saw $1.72 billion leave the funds; last week that figure dropped to just over $226 million. Bitfinex analysts note that funding rates remain subdued and leverage has not expanded, pointing to spot order books — not speculative positioning — as the driver of recent price action. 

“Investors remain cautious given the shift in the macro regime, while institutional and treasury-style buyers continue to provide the marginal bid,” Bitfinex said in a note to Bitcoin Magazine. “That combination points to an under-positioned market rather than an overheated one, leaving room for further upside if spot demand strengthens.”

Bitfinex also flagged a pattern in its margin data: BTC/USD margin longs have been building in a range tracking 10–25% off the recent downside, a positioning pattern that has historically preceded medium-term bottoms, according to the note.

Strategy and Strive stack some sats

Corporate buyers showed no signs of pulling back. Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) disclosed Monday that it acquired 520 bitcoin last week for approximately $35 million at an average bitcoin price of $67,068, its third straight weekly purchase. That brings the firm’s total holdings to 847,363 BTC. The company also raised its USD reserve by $300 million to $1.4 billion to support dividend obligations on its preferred stock program.

In a notable week for the broader bitcoin treasury space, Strive, Inc. (Nasdaq: ASST) out-bought Strategy for the week. The Dallas-based firm disclosed the purchase of 759 bitcoin for approximately $50 million at an average bitcoin price of $65,850 per coin, lifting its total holdings to 19,864 BTC.

It was Strive’s largest single-week acquisition in recent months and a significant step-up from the 73 BTC it purchased the week prior.

Bitcoin price catalysts

Bitcoin’s options market tells a more nuanced story than the headline price suggests. One-week implied volatility has retreated from 60% to 36%, and the 25-delta put skew has pulled back from its June extremes, suggesting the rush for downside protection has subsided. 

Realized volatility has climbed above implied volatility — 1-month IV near 39% against realized volatility above 42% — meaning recent price swings have outpaced what options markets priced in. A large negative gamma cluster sits near $62,000, where roughly $1.8 billion in short gamma is concentrated.

Options traders continue to pay a premium for downside protection, Bitfinex notes, keeping volatility premium and 25-delta skew metrics elevated even after June’s pullback. 

Bitcoin price sits roughly 50% below its October record of a bitcoin price $126,080, with the next catalysts to watch being any shift in guidance from Warsh or progress on the CLARITY Act through Congress.

Source: BitcoinMagazine