Arthur Hayes expects Bitcoin (BTC) to bottom near $40,000 within the next six months, a prediction the BitMEX co-founder made even as his core positions stay heavily long.

Bitcoin changed hands around $62,278 on Tuesday, down about 3% over 24 hours and locked in a range it has held for weeks. A move to Haye’s target would constitute a 35% drawdown below current prices.

Arthur Hayes Eyes a $40,000 Bitcoin Floor

Hayes laid out the call during an interview with content creator EllioTrades on June 12. He said he holds put spreads as a hedge, while his long-term book stays large and strictly long.

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The $40,000 target would mark a steep retreat, and adds to a run of recent calls from Hayes, including a more bullish year-end Bitcoin target. His willingness to hedge, however, signals caution about the next few months.

“I’m going to stick with it,” Hayes said when asked if his $200,000–$250,000 target still holds with only weeks left in the year. “If I’m wrong it doesn’t matter… I’m long, I’m still happy either way.”

MicroStrategy Buys Help Bitcoin Reclaim $65,000

Bitcoin had recovered earlier in the week, and MicroStrategy’s buying helped it reclaim the $65,000 level. The company added 520 BTC and lifted its cash reserves by $300 million to $1.4 billion. That extended dividend coverage to nearly 10 months.

Analysts at QCP flagged that the buying likely came through a dilutive at-the-market stock program. Even so, investors took comfort in the liquidity rebuild, and the firm’s STRC preferred shares recovered above $90.

BTC will likely require a confluence of positive catalysts to break decisively out of its current range,” the analysts stated.

The accumulation has limits, however. Wintermute said MicroStrategy keeps buying at a slower pace as funding costs rise.

It added that the two largest structural buyers, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Strategy, now provide less marginal demand than before.

Hawkish Fed Keeps Bitcoin Boxed In

The bigger drag came from the Federal Reserve. Policymakers held the benchmark rate between 3.50% and 3.75%.

They also stripped the easing bias and tilted the dot plot toward a hike, lifting the median 2026 rate projection to 3.8% from 3.4% in March.

That shift repriced expectations fast. The market now prices December rate hike odds near 37%, up from about 24% a month earlier, according to Wintermute. Most policymakers, 17 of 18, now see inflation risks tilted to the upside.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish policy turn reinforced the message, signaling a committee set on fighting inflation. The stance held even as oil prices fell.

The backdrop leaves Bitcoin on the defensive. A collapsed US-Iran agreement and roughly $600 million in weekend long liquidations had already weighed on prices.

Traders now look to Thursday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, where consensus sees core inflation rising 0.3% to 0.4%.

Quarter-end could add to the swings. JPMorgan estimates institutions may shift as much as $165 billion from equities into bonds by the end of June.

That would rank as the largest such reallocation in at least four years. For now, Wintermute sees little sign of fresh demand.

This is a market stabilizing beneath the surface on lighter positioning and cleaner leverage, not one finding new buyers,” Wintermute analysts stated.

Source: BeInCrypto