Bitcoin’s market cycles could be more closely linked to the US political calendar than many investors think, according to a new analysis shared by Alphractal founder Joao Wedson.

In a July 30 post on X, he showed that the flagship cryptocurrency has repeatedly entered bear markets before US midterm elections, only to recover after voters head to the polls.

Recurring Election Cycle Patterns

Wedson compared Bitcoin’s price history against US election cycles and found what he described as a recurring sequence. According to his chart, BTC enters a bear market about one year before every US midterm election before starting a longer bull market right after the vote. In some cycles, the market bottom formed just days before the election, while in others it came shortly afterward.

He also noted that presidential elections have produced a different effect, with Bitcoin rallying strongly every time a president won an election before approaching a major cycle top not long after the president was inaugurated.

“Data reveals patterns that narratives often miss,” wrote the analyst.

According to Wedson, XRP offers an even more striking example, starting a steep rally on the day Donald Trump won the 2024 election and reaching a local peak on January 20, 2025, the day Trump was inaugurated.

His observations are quite similar to those made in a Binance Research report from earlier in the year, which found that BTC has historically struggled during US midterm election years before posting gains once the political uncertainty faded.

Per the report, Bitcoin dropped by an average of about 56% during completed midterm cycles since 2014, before returning an average gain of roughly 54% in the year after the elections.

Wedson had earlier contended that while many market participants believed Bitcoin has already established a bottom, “a price recovery alone does not confirm a structural shift.” He said there must be clear signs of capitulation and deleveraging, as well as short-term investors bringing in new capital before such a conclusion can be reached.

Macro Conditions Could Shape Whether History Repeats

There’s still about three months left before Americans go to the polls, and BTC is currently hovering around the $64,000 level, which is nearly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of over $126,000, with data from CoinGecko showing it dipped about 2.5% in seven days.

However, it’s still up nearly 8% across the last month, after weathering the latest Federal Reserve decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%.

Source: CryptoPotato