SanDisk (SNDK) closed Friday at $1,214.83, down 5.09%, while its daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) sank to levels last seen in April 2025. That earlier reading preceded a one-year gain of more than 570%.

The memory maker reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after Wednesday’s close on August 5. The print may show whether the oversold signal marks a bottom or only a pause in the decline.

SanDisk RSI Matches the April 2025 Trough

The daily SanDisk RSI bottomed near 33 in late July, its weakest reading since April 2025. Readings below 30 signal oversold conditions, so the stock now sits at the edge of that zone.

The comparison matters because of what happened last time. In April 2025, the indicator dipped below 30 just before SNDK began the advance that lifted it more than 570% in a year. The current crash has erased roughly 48% of the stock’s value from its June peak of $2,354.39.

However, oversold does not mean finished. RSI stayed depressed for weeks during the April 2025 bottoming process. A recovery above 50 would shift momentum back to neutral, while a fresh drop below 30 would suggest sellers remain in control.

SanDisk Earnings on August 5 Could Decide the Oversold Case

The technical setup meets a fundamental catalyst this week. SanDisk guided fiscal Q4 revenue to $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion, up 30% to 39% from the prior quarter, with adjusted EPS of $30 to $33.

Wall Street consensus sits near $33.28 per share, against just $0.02 a year earlier. The company has beaten bottom-line estimates in each of the past four quarters, and Goldman Sachs recently raised its price target from $1,200 to $2,200 on continued NAND supply tightness.

In contrast, the selloff reflects fears of a NAND inventory glut in the second half of 2026, which could compress margins. That tension explains why analysts kept raising targets even as the stock kept falling through July. Guidance for the new fiscal year, plus the Investor Day on August 13, will likely settle the argument.

SNDK Price Prediction Depends on the $1,244 Fibonacci Level

The daily price chart frames the battle with a Fibonacci retracement drawn from the $558.58 April 2026 low to the $2,354.39 peak. The late-July bounce started at the 0.786 level near $942.89, a zone that also acted as support in April.

That bounce stalled precisely at the 0.618 level of $1,244.58. Friday’s 5.09% drop pushed the close back below it, turning the level into resistance. Meanwhile, volume tells a cautionary story. The late-July flush produced the heaviest trading in months, consistent with capitulation, yet volume has faded during the recovery attempt.

A post-earnings reclaim of $1,244 would open the path to the 0.5 level at $1,456.49, roughly 20% above Friday’s close, with the heavier $1,668 resistance zone beyond it. Therefore, the downside scenario is equally defined. Rejection here risks a retest of $942.89, about 22% lower.

Strong results and firm guidance above the $1,244 line could make the April 2025 RSI signal repeat itself. A miss would likely confirm the warning instead, sending SNDK back toward $943.

Source: BeInCrypto