Japan’s Nikkei 225 barely budged Tuesday despite a historic joint US-Japan intervention to prop up the yen. But Kioxia Holdings’ earnings miss suggests the real pain has not landed yet.

Tokyo and Washington intervened to halt months of yen weakness, and Kioxia posted disappointing guidance days later. Markets have absorbed both events calmly so far, but the underlying risks, a possible BOJ rate hike and a currency still primed to strengthen, remain unresolved.

A Muted Reaction So Far

The Nikkei 225 slipped slightly, 0.6% to around 63,300 on Tuesday. That extended Monday’s 1.4% drop.

Both moves look mild next to the selloff traders feared. Tokyo and Washington had just confirmed their first coordinated yen-buying operation in decades.

Kioxia Holdings actually rose slightly on Tuesday. But others in Japan, like SoftBank Group and Advantest, declined as chip stocks led the pullback.

The move follows Kioxia’s 65% plunge from June highs. That slide had already fueled speculation over shareholder payouts before Friday’s earnings.

The yen has settled near 155 to 157 per dollar. It gained as much as 3.8% over two sessions last week, when Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the joint action.

Why Kioxia Still Faces Pressure

Kioxia’s fiscal first-half operating income guidance missed analyst estimates on July 31. The company announced a three-for-one stock split and a share buyback the same day, but neither measure addressed the earnings shortfall itself.

A stronger yen deepens that problem. Kioxia is an export-heavy memory chipmaker, so it loses value on overseas sales whenever the currency strengthens. That adds currency drag to an outlook it already cut.

The timing makes things worse. Global memory chip prices are still swinging, and the wider AI chip trade has wobbled all through July. Korean rivals SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics posted their own sharp moves during that stretch.

The bigger risk sits with the Bank of Japan. The central bank held rates at 1% last week but left the door open to a hike. Bessent has repeatedly pushed Governor Kazuo Ueda toward tightening further.

The BOJ’s next policy meeting in September is the trigger point traders are watching. A hike would widen room for further yen strength. Officials have also signaled they will intervene again if the currency slides back toward its recent lows.

That combination puts Kioxia in a tough spot. It already missed its own guidance, and the currency it depends on looks primed to keep rising.

Whether Kioxia’s slide deepens may depend less on its own numbers. It may hinge more on what the BOJ decides in six weeks.

Source: BeInCrypto