Peter Schiff has put a number on the bond market’s damage. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), built on the world’s safest debt, fell to $81.89 on Friday.

That is a fresh 52-week low. The fund peaked at $179.70 in March 2020. It has now lost more than half its value.

The Safest Trade in Markets Lost Half Its Value

TLT holds US government bonds maturing in more than 20 years. None can realistically default. The Treasury backs every one. So the risk was never that America stops paying. The risk was interest rates.

Bond prices fall when yields rise. This fund feels it harder than almost anything.

TLT carries an effective duration of 14.9 years, according to iShares. In plain terms, a one point rise in yields costs roughly 15% of the price.

The real damage is worse than Schiff’s number. The fall from $179.70 to Friday’s low works out at 54%.

Then there is inflation. Prices have risen 29% since March 2020, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In purchasing power, long bond holders are down closer to 65%.

Friday’s low had a trigger. On Thursday, the Treasury sold $25 billion of 30-year debt. It cleared at 5.216%.

Bids covered the offering 2.39 times, in line with recent sales. Demand was adequate. The price was not.

That yield is the story. Across 92 sales of 30-year bonds since 2001, only one cost the government more, Treasury auction records show. That was February 2001, at 5.46%.

What happened next is worth pausing on. Nine months after that sale, the Treasury stopped issuing 30-year bonds completely. Officials expected to retire the national debt within a few years.

The bond returned in 2006, once surpluses had turned into deficits. It now costs the most since the year Washington believed it would never need it again. BeInCrypto has tracked how surging bond yields have failed to lift risk assets this year.

Schiff, a gold advocate and long-running Bitcoin critic, framed the low as a verdict on anyone who chose safety.

“$TLT, the 20-year U.S. Treasury ETF, just hit a new low for the year. Trump thinks America is winning, but anyone who invested in Treasuries is losing bigly. TLT is down 6% so far in 2026 and 50% from its 2020 high. Plus, real losses are much greater when adjusted for inflation,” he wrote.

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His numbers check out, and the 50% is conservative. The 2026 price decline is 5.81%, per Barchart. Counting the interest the fund pays monthly, that narrows to 2.78%.

What Peter Schiff’s Warning Means for Bitcoin

The link to crypto is opportunity cost. TLT now yields 5.17% over 30 days. A government bond paying above 5% competes directly with an asset that pays nothing.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $62,968 on Friday, down 3.2% in 24 hours. Schiff argued in July that the next major crash would start in the bond market rather than in crypto.

Bitcoin holders read the same numbers the other way. Borrowing costs at 25-year highs, they argue, are the case for a scarce asset outside the banking system. Through 2026, the yield pressure has won that argument.

The next test comes quickly. The Treasury sells $16 billion of 20-year bonds on Wednesday.

Weak demand would push long yields higher and keep the pressure on Bitcoin. Strong demand would give both markets room to breathe.

Source: BeInCrypto