The Bitcoin bear market is over, technical analyst Eric Crown says. His final confirmation signal fired when Bitcoin closed August at $78,581, clearing his threshold by roughly $12,900.

September is next, and Crown does not expect much from it. He calls it a nothing month, with an early pullback likely before October takes over.

Crown’s Last Bitcoin Bear Market Signal Fired in August

In an interview with BeInCrypto recorded on Aug. 26, Crown said a single item remained on his macro reversal checklist.

He needed Bitcoin to finish the month above $65,708. That close would push the monthly stochastic oscillator up out of its bearish zone. The last such cross came in January 2023.

“I just need to see this month finish out above $65,700. And look, there’s going to be pullbacks along the way, of course, but I’m just generally looking for this mark to go sideways and up.”

Bitcoin settled the month at $78,581 on Binance. BTC traded near $77,341 at the time of writing, down 1.9% over 24 hours.

Crown’s broader macro indicator had already fired months earlier. It combines volatility, percent below the high, fear and greed readings, seasonality, and momentum extremes.

Those signals appeared throughout the low $60,000s, well before August’s rally. Crown frames the conclusion in probabilities rather than certainties.

“In my opinion, yes. I’ve seen what I need to see and everything always comes down to probabilities and for me the probability is greater that Bitcoin is going to be generally going up from here rather than down.”

Other market participants reached similar conclusions. Large holders, or whales, accumulated through the summer. Strive chief executive Matt Cole called the bottom in late August.

September Is a ‘Nothing Month’, Not a Crash

Crown pushed back hard on September’s reputation as Bitcoin’s worst month. On median monthly returns, it ranks third worst, behind August and December.

August carries a median loss of 7.5%, yet this August gained close to 25%. Strip out 2011 and 2014, both deep bear market years. September’s mean return then improves to a loss of just 0.1%.

The last three Septembers all closed green, at 4%, 7.4%, and 5.4%.

“Ultimately, what September is… it’s a nothing month. You really don’t see all that much. You see slight gain, slight loss here and there.”

The month does split in two, however. Historically, the first 16 days carry a median loss of 8.5%. Applied to August’s close, that points to roughly $71,900.

After the midpoint that median flips positive at 6.5%. Crown ties the turn to three events. The Federal Reserve meets, economic data lands, and the quad witching expiry hits. Earlier inflation prints have already moved BTC sharply this year.

Where Crown Buys the First Pullback

Crown expects early weakness to reconnect Bitcoin with its weekly five-period exponential moving average, or 5 EMA. That average now sits at $73,294, roughly 5% below spot.

Pullbacks following a large weekly candle usually run near 5%, he said. That is far shallower than the 10% to 15% many traders wait for. The bigger retracement typically lands about 60 days after the first major move up, which points to October.

Crown put the odds of BTC touching that average in any given week at 71.5%. More than two consecutive misses occur only about 14% of the time.

His stated worst case is the weekly 21 EMA at $70,923.

Three separate methods now converge on the same zone. The 21 EMA sits at $70,923, September’s first half median implies about $71,900, and Crown’s invalidation level is $70,000.

Crown said he intends to buy that first September dip. He plans to add to long-term positions rather than trade around it. Bitcoin’s strongest weekly close since 2024 in late August is what reset those averages.

Bitcoin Bear Market Is Over: What Would Break the Thesis

Crown’s case is not yet confirmed on the price structure. His reversal sequence requires a higher low, a retest of the previous high, then a higher high.

Bitcoin has the first two. August’s peak at $81,260 stopped just beneath the prior weekly lower high near $83,000.

“You are right right now. This is absolutely a lower high. Technically speaking, it is a slight lower high right there, but it is a lower high nonetheless.”

He also acknowledged the widely held view that Bitcoin should bottom roughly one year after its October top. He is not positioning for it.

Crown argues the asset now behaves differently. In his view Bitcoin trades like an exchange traded fund, consolidating in wide boxes before stepping higher. That regime weakens strict cycle timing.

Not every analyst agrees that the low is in. Benjamin Cowen told BeInCrypto that crypto sits 62% below fair value, the cheapest since 2010. He still expects the bottom nearer November.

“As long as Bitcoin is above more or less 70,000 bucks, all good. I have no issues with that at all. If Bitcoin were to start to lose 70,000 bucks, okay, I would severely reconsider everything that I’ve said here.”

His roadmap allows for a move toward the high $80,000s. A retracement of 10% to 15% would follow, taking BTC into the mid $70,000s before a steadier climb.

The year-end math is tighter than it first appears. Crown measures from the September low to the December close. That window closed positively nine times in 15 years, at a median gain of 33.5%.

Applied to current levels, the September low must hold above roughly $74,900 for six figures. A green third quarter needs BTC above about $58,000 at month end. That outcome has preceded a green fourth quarter six times in eight.

October remains his strongest seasonal argument. Its median return is 12.8%, with gains in 10 of the past 14 years.

Source: BeInCrypto