An analyst under the pseudonym Wimar.X believes that the same scenario is unfolding around SpaceX's (SPCX) IPO as happened with Rocket Lab (RKLB) in 2021. In his view, the hype around the stock is a sign not of growth but of the hype running out.

SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026, conducting the largest IPO in history. The company placed its shares at $135, which gave it a valuation of about $1.75 trillion, and at the close of the first trading day on Nasdaq the stock finished above the offering level. This is the context against which Wimar.X puts forward his assumption.

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The Rocket Lab lesson of 2021

The analyst noted: in 2021, Rocket Lab went public. Back then, according to him, everyone repeated the same thing: this is the future, space stocks will only rise. Then came the part people prefer to keep quiet about.

According to Wimar.X, RKLB shares collapsed by 82.8% from the 2021 high to the 2022 low. Retail investors "bought the dream," and then ran up against reality.

The analyst applies this logic to SpaceX. In his view, in 2026 the same space story is repeating itself: the company has just gone public, surrounded by the largest hype in IPO history, a trillion-dollar valuation, and everyone is once again calling it the future. But, as Wimar.X asserts, SPCX stock is already declining, and this, in his opinion, is not chance but a bearish signal.

Why he considers SpaceX a dangerous bet

Wimar.X emphasizes that Rocket Lab had the same space narrative, but SpaceX is far larger, the company's stock is "overbought," and the timing for entry, in his view, is worse. The same space euphoria, the same chase by retail investors, the same story about the future — but with worse timing.

From this he derives a choice for the investor: chase one of the most expensive IPOs in history, or learn the lesson that, in the expert's view, the Rocket Lab story already taught in 2021. Space hype can first drive up quotes, and then crash those who followed it.

Source: BeInCrypto