Bitcoin’s next major leg down might not come from miners, ETF exodus, macro data, unknown large whales, or even wars and worsening economic conditions. Instead, it could be from the market’s largest and most famous corporate BTC buyer if it indeed turns into a recurring seller, as many critics and experts fear.

As such, we decided to ask ChatGPT about its take on the matter: how viable is the threat, and how low can BTC go if Strategy indeed begins disposing of some of its crypto holdings to pay off dividends or other expenses?

Is Strategy a Threat to BTC’s Price?

Consistent crypto critic Peter Schiff is not the only person who has sounded the alarm on Strategy’s strategy (no pun intended) to raise funds through its STRC to accumulate more bitcoin. Just earlier, we reported that a popular crypto analyst, Kaleo, warned that the company would need to sell at least 50,000 bitcoin in the next couple of years to fund dividend payments and other expenses.

ChatGPT warned that if the largest corporate holder of BTC indeed starts offloading more significant portions, not just the 32 units it sold several weeks ago, the initial market shock could send the asset tumbling toward multi-year lows at $52,000. That would be just the base-case scenario and first reaction, before a more profound correction driven by a deeper loss of confidence in Strategy’s capital structure could tumble bitcoin toward $45,000.

The popular AI solution noted that it’s highly unlikely that Strategy will offload “hundreds of thousands of coins,” but the real danger for the asset’s price will stem from the narrative shift.

“For years, Strategy was the market’s most reliable corporate buyer of bitcoin. When BTC dipped, investors expected Michael Saylor’s company to raise capital and buy more. That created a psychological floor. If the same market starts believing Strategy must sell BTC to service its own financial instruments, that floor can quickly turn into resistance.”

Why STRC Matters

Also referred to as Stretch, STRC is the company’s variable-rate perpetual preferred stock. Simply put, investors buy STRC for cash yield, while Strategy uses the capital raised through the instrument to support its bitcoin-focused balance sheet. It’s designed around a $100 stated amount.

The company can adjust the dividend rate to keep STRC trading close to that level. When the shares trade near or above $100, the model operates as designed: the company can issue more preferred shares through at-the-market programs, raise cash, buy more BTC, and keep the machine working.

When that $100 par breaks, the structure is in danger. At current prices of under $90, STRC is no longer behaving like a stable high-yield instrument. Instead, it trades at a meaningful discount relative to the level the firm wants to hold, creating several issues.

Strategy’s ability to issue more STRC becomes weaker as selling new shares below the intended $100 zone would violate the product’s design or signal that investors are demanding a much larger discount.

Additionally, the dividend rate may need to rise to attract buyers back. Lastly, instead of using STRC proceeds to buy more BTC, Strategy may have to utilize its cash reserves, common-stock sales, or, as threatened above, BTC sales, to keep dividends current.

Источник: CryptoPotato