A strengthening US dollar could put further pressure on Bitcoin, which is already suffering from major institutional selling pressure amid geopolitical uncertainty and increasing inflation.

“The bear market was confirmed almost exactly when the DXY found its bottom,” said Swissblock analysis on Monday. “At first, the dollar decline looked supportive for BTC. But the reversal changed everything.”

DXY is the dollar index, a measure of greenback strength against a basket of currencies.

Strengthening Dollar Bad For Crypto

Once DXY started climbing again, liquidity tightened, selling pressure intensified, the Risk Index surged, and Bitcoin’s structure deteriorated, according to Swissblock.

The dollar stabilized, and Bitcoin tried to recover in April and early May, but the relief did not last, the analysts added.

“BTC does not only need sellers to run out of pressure. It also needs the dollar headwind to stop strengthening.”

DXY hit its highest level since May 2025, topping 101 again this week, according to TradingView. The dollar has strengthened by 5.6% since the DXY low of 95.6 in January.

A stronger dollar generally signals tighter financial conditions, meaning less cheap money and abundant liquidity, so when it dries up, Bitcoin demand weakens.

It also means that holding cash or dollar-denominated assets becomes more attractive, especially if interest rates start to rise, which looks likely this year.

Analyst Benjamin Cowen observed that BTC is getting squeezed between the “Bear Market Resistance Band” and the 200-week simple moving average.

“A decisive move down later this year, while initially scary, would likely just set up the market cycle bottom for Bitcoin in Q4 2026,” he said.

Meanwhile, Galaxy Research reported on Monday that on-chain distribution by five-year-plus Bitcoin holders has overwhelmed institutional absorption for the last four weeks, further pressuring the asset.

“This cycle has seen the most significant OG selling in Bitcoin’s history,” said CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost.

Onchain distribution by 5+ year bitcoin holders has overwhelmed institutional absorption for the last 4 weeks

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Bitcoin Price Outlook

Bitcoin hit an intraday high of $65,468 on Monday, its highest price for five days, but it failed to break higher, falling back below $64,000 during the Tuesday morning Asian trading session.

Volume and liquidity are tightening, keeping BTC pinned around current levels, but with further pressure coming from a stronger dollar, the path of least resistance is downwards.

Источник: CryptoPotato