Jiang Zhuoer, co-founder of BTC.TOP mining pool, on June 25 published a long-term prediction for Bitcoin (BTC), saying it could bottom between $42,000 and $44,000 sometime in the October-to-December 2026 window.

Jiang made the call while the OG cryptocurrency was trading near $62,000, down about 51% from its all-time high above $126,000, which was set in October 2025.

MSTR Sentiment May Lead to the Next Bitcoin Bottom

According to the miner, Strategy’s mNAV ratio, which compares its share price with the value of its BTC holdings per share, has entered the same range seen during the previous bear market. An mNAV reading above 1 suggests that investors are paying a premium, while a figure below 1 means there’s pessimism brewing.

Per Jiang’s assessment, that metric has fallen to 0.72, very close to the 0.70 level recorded in May 2022. He argued that the current reading may signal a sentiment low for Strategy investors, although not necessarily for Bitcoin itself.

When mNAV bottomed in May 2022, as the analyst explained, BTC was trading near $31,000 and went on to reach a cycle low six months later when it dropped to around $15,000. If that same lag applies now, Jiang postulated that the flagship crypto will reach a low in Q4 2026, with prices falling to roughly $42,000 to $44,000.

His prediction also relied on a 4-year market model that compares Bitcoin’s long-term price swings to a bouncing ball, where each bounce results in the loss of amplitude. According to the model, as BTC’s total market cap grows, its volatility naturally decreases cycle by cycle.

Strategy MSTR stock recently fell to its lowest level since February 2024, and was changing hands at just above $94 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the company’s preferred STRC shares have also been trading below their par value of $100, with data from the firm showing it stood at $80.84, and this, Jiang says, has also contributed to the current market stress, with other analysts suggesting it could pressure Strategy to sell some of its Bitcoin.

Market Context Around Jiang’s Call

Bitcoin’s current weakness is not hard to see in the data, with Santiment noting earlier today that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC had dumped 45,074 coins over an 8-day period, helping push the asset below $60,000 for the first time since October 2024. CoinGlass data showed nearly $416 million in Bitcoin liquidations in the last day, with long positions accounting for more than $319 million.

Analyst Wise Crypto described the move as a leverage flush, with more than 175,000 traders affected when BTC briefly touched $59,000. The asset has since made some recovery from that dip and was trading close to $62,000 at press time, although it was still down about 4% in the last week and almost 20% over the past month.

Meanwhile, another market watcher, Ali Martinez, flagged that the Coinbase Premium Index has been negative for 46 straight days. The metric compares the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase with offshore exchanges, with a negative reading suggesting weaker demand from American investors and institutions.

Источник: CryptoPotato