Bitcoin treasury companies are showing the classic signs of a popped bubble. Strategy stock (MSTR) has crashed through the $100 support level, while a prominent analyst calls the whole sector “the textbook bubble chart.”

The selloff has spread to MicroStrategy’s preferred shares and now threatens the funding model that built the entire category. Strategy alone holds more Bitcoin than the next nineteen public companies combined, so its troubles set the tone for everyone.

Two Strategy Tickers, Two Opposite Bets

Strategy Inc., the firm formerly known as MicroStrategy, trades under several symbols. Two matters most here.

MSTR is the common stock. It works as a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin (BTC). Because the company borrows to buy more BTC, the shares tend to amplify Bitcoin’s swings in both directions. There is no dividend, and the risk sits at the top of the scale.

STRC, nicknamed “Stretch,” is a perpetual preferred stock. It was engineered to sit near its $100 par value and pay a steady monthly dividend yielding roughly 11% a year. It targets income investors seeking exposure without volatility.

The other key difference appears if trouble hits. Preferred holders rank ahead of common shareholders. In short, MSTR is the high-octane bet, while STRC was sold as the calm one.

The Sector Is Really One Company

The Bitcoin treasury trade looks like a crowd. In practice, it is one company with a long tail.

Strategy holds 847,363 BTC, according to data from BitcoinTreasuries.NET. That is about 20 times more than Twenty One Capital at 43,514 BTC and Metaplanet at 40,177 BTC. The rest of the top ten trail far behind.

That concentration matters for valuation. MSTR now carries an mNAV of 0.70, meaning the stock trades below the value of the Bitcoin it holds. The premium that once powered the model has flipped to a discount.

Therefore, the health of every smaller treasury firm depends on how Strategy behaves. When the leader trades below its Bitcoin, the playbook stops working for everyone.

The Buying Frenzy Traced a Textbook Bubble

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, has tracked treasury-company buying against the classic stages of a bubble.

His chart overlays a treasury-company buyer metric on Bitcoin’s price. The buying built quietly, then exploded into a vertical spike around mid-2025. Since then, it has collapsed, mirroring the “return to normal,” fear, and capitulation legs of the textbook model.

“Bitcoin treasury companies are the textbook bubble chart.”

The frenzy peaked while Bitcoin printed its highs. Today BTC trades near $59,454, down about 2.7% on the day. The mania faded first, and price followed.

The Income Engine Is Cracking

STRC was supposed to be the stable part of the machine. That assumption is now under pressure.

The preferred stock held near its $100 par value for months. In June 2026, it broke down hard, falling toward the low $80s and trading well below par. Edwards has compared the move to the 2022 collapse of Terra LUNA, in which a supposedly stable asset held its value until it suddenly did not.

That comparison deserves a caveat. STRC is a preferred equity backed by a real balance sheet, not an algorithmic stablecoin like TerraUSD. The mechanics differ, so a direct death-spiral analogy may overstate the risk.

Still, the break carries real consequences. Because STRC sits below par, Strategy has limited room to issue new preferred shares. The company has even begun selling small amounts of Bitcoin to help fund preferred dividends.

MSTR Price Loses Its $100 Lifeline

The common stock tells the clearest story. On the monthly chart, MSTR has fallen to around $88, down roughly 44% for the month.

The decline ran through every key level. The stock was rejected at $400, then broke $170, which flipped from support to resistance. Now it is slicing through the $100 zone that had held as support since early 2024.

The breakdown comes on rising volume, a sign that sellers are in control. Momentum confirms the weakness, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaking below a long-term ascending support line.

A monthly close below $100 would mark the lowest level since February 2024. Bulls need to reclaim that zone quickly to argue the support break was a false move.

So, Is It Really a Bubble?

The weight of the evidence leans toward a bubble. The buying mania peaked and reversed, the income leg broke its peg, and the flagship trades at a discount to its own Bitcoin.

However, the picture is not a guaranteed collapse. Strategy holds real Bitcoin, not an empty token, and a Bitcoin recovery could restore its premium quickly. The firm also has tools to manage its preferred dividends through any downturn.

For now, the levels to watch are simple. A $100 reclaim on MSTR and a return of STRC toward par would ease contagion fears. A failure there would suggest the textbook bubble still has further to deflate.

This analysis reflects chart readings and named analyst commentary, not financial advice. Readers should weigh the risks and do their own research before acting.

Источник: BeInCrypto