Hyperliquid (HYPE) trades near $71.82, up 4.4% in 24 hours, as bulls attempt a third breakout above the $76.70 all-time high. The token has gained roughly 250% from its January low near $20.50.

Record protocol revenue and fresh inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) back the attempt. Meanwhile, monthly token unlocks and growing regulatory scrutiny keep sellers well-supplied with arguments for a lower Hyperliquid price target.

Record Revenue and ETF Inflows Strengthen the Bull Case

Hyperliquid crossed $1 billion in cumulative protocol revenue on June 30, according to DeFiLlama. The platform routes about 99% of trading fees into open-market HYPE purchases through its Assistance Fund, according to Tokenomist data.

Therefore, the July 6 unlock of 9.92 million HYPE, worth around $645 million, met a buyback fund reportedly holding 4.6 times that amount. Buyback demand has absorbed similar tranches before.

Institutional access is also widening. Bitwise’s BHYP and 21Shares’ THYP were listed in mid-May as the first US spot HYPE ETFs. Combined net inflows passed $170 million by early July, and Grayscale filed its own S-1 with the SEC.

The buyback and ETF combination already fueled flippening speculation in May.

Token Unlocks and Regulators Test the Rally

Core contributor vesting releases a new HYPE tranche on the sixth of every month through 2027. Only around 22% of the 1 billion maximum supply is circulating today, so dilution remains a recurring headwind.

Regulatory pressure is building as well. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) added Hyperliquid to its Investor Alert List in late June, as Singapore joined earlier UK warnings. In addition, CME and ICE executives urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to review the platform’s commodity perpetuals, Bloomberg reported in May. HYPE fell about 6% on that report.

Macro conditions add friction. US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a record $4.5 billion June outflow, and sentiment sits in Extreme Fear. Buybacks also scale with volume, so their support could fade during a market-wide drawdown.

Daily Chart Shows Buyers Defending Higher Fibonacci Levels

HYPE has been in an upward trend since January. The mid-June correction from the record high stopped at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $55.41. However, the next pullback ended at the shallower 0.236 level at $63.66.

Each correction has been shallower than the last, which suggests strengthening demand. A late June analysis showed user activity stayed resilient through the deepest of those pullbacks.

If sellers force a larger reset, the 0.618 retracement at $42.07 stands out. It nearly coincides with the ascending trendline and a historical support zone near $44. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled to about 60 while maintaining a bullish structure.

Volatility Squeeze on the 4-Hour Chart Signals the Next Move

The 4-hour chart shows price coiling in a contracting triangle since the June 16 peak. HYPE currently presses the pattern’s upper boundary near $72. The 0.236 retracement at $63.66 serves as interim support inside the structure.

RSI on this timeframe also hovers near 60, just below bullish territory. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP) prints extremely low readings. Historically, such volatility compression precedes a strong directional expansion.

Hyperliquid Price Prediction, a $77 Breakout or a Reset to $63.66

A 4-hour close above the triangle, followed by a daily close above $76.70, would start price discovery. The triangle’s height projects a measured move near $88, roughly 22% above the current price. Continued ETF inflows could accelerate that scenario.

In contrast, rejection at the record high would expose $63.66 first, then $55.41. A daily close below $63.66 would signal a deeper reset. The larger uptrend breaks only below the $42 confluence of the 0.618 retracement and the trendline.

July’s verdict depends on whether the compressed volatility resolves upward into price discovery or downward into another Fibonacci test.

Source: BeInCrypto