Corporate treasury demand remains one of Bitcoin’s most important structural sources of support, but experts suggest that the market is no longer treating it as a permanent, price-insensitive floor.

Instead of focusing solely on how much BTC companies hold, QCP Capital stated that investors are increasingly evaluating whether the funding conditions behind those holdings can continue to support accumulation.

Funding Model Matters More

In its latest report, QCP said that the trend became clear in Q2 after Strategy’s late-May sale of 32 BTC. Although the sale was “immaterial” relative to its 846,842 BTC holdings, it challenged the long-held belief that corporate Bitcoin treasuries would only keep buying, never sell.

It also prompted the market to reassess whether treasury holdings were truly untouchable. Even as Strategy resumed buying within weeks, there has been no meaningful positive reach for Bitcoin, which essentially suggests that the market had become more focused on funding capacity, balance-sheet liquidity, and confidence in the treasury model than on accumulation alone.

QCP explained that while public companies collectively hold about 1.26 million BTC, roughly two-thirds belong to Strategy. This leaves the corporate treasury narrative heavily concentrated around a single company. As a result, its purchases, issuance conditions, and reserve policy continue to influence Bitcoin sentiment well beyond their direct impact on the spot market.

The financial structure supporting corporate accumulation has come to attention in Q2. Rather than judging treasury demand through purchase announcements, investors are now watching factors such as mNAV, equity issuance, preferred demand, convertible capacity, and cash reserves.

When funding conditions remain favorable, companies can raise capital, expand their Bitcoin reserves, and reinforce confidence in the treasury model. On the other hand, when conditions tighten, recurring preferred-stock obligations create cash needs, as seen with the Strategy’s May sale.

QCP went on to add that the company’s equity still trades above the combined value of its Bitcoin net asset value and US dollar reserves, which indicates a premium on its ability to continue raising capital, even as around $22.2 billion in preferred securities and convertible instruments rank ahead of common equity.

Looking ahead to Q3, continued net accumulation by Strategy and other public companies, particularly alongside stabilizing ETF inflows, would strengthen Bitcoin’s absorption channel and help repair the confidence damage from Q2. However, QCP warned that slower purchases, weaker preferred pricing, a compressed mNAV premium, or declining cash reserves would point to growing stress, which would end up making the corporate treasury bid more selective and increasing sentiment risk.

Besides, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan recently said that Strategy is unlikely to have the same influence on Bitcoin demand in the next market cycle as it did previously. Hougan does not expect the company to become a major seller and still sees it remaining a net buyer if the crypto asset’s prices recover.

Scenarios For BTC

QCP outlined three possible paths for Bitcoin in Q3. Its base case calls for the crypto asset to remain between $60,000 and $75,000 as ETF flows stabilize and corporate treasury demand supports the market.

A steady reclaim of $75,000 could drive prices toward $80,000-$82,000, while renewed ETF outflows, a stronger dollar, or rising real yields could trigger a break below $58,000-$60,000 and confirm a more bearish outlook.

Источник: CryptoPotato