SpaceX stock traded near $137 in Wednesday’s premarket, just above the $135 IPO price and Tuesday’s record low of $135.52. Still, a falling wedge on the hourly chart suggests a rebound to $158 may be forming.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) has fallen almost 40% since its June 16 peak of $225.64. Thursday’s Starship Flight 13 launch could decide whether the pattern plays out.

SpaceX Stock Loses Two Key Support Zones in Four-Week Slide

The daily chart shows three consecutive red sessions, with SPCX closing at $136.08 on Tuesday, down 2.20%. The decline from the June 16 peak now measures $89.60, or 39.69%.

Sellers broke the $168 to $171 support zone in mid-June. A rejection near that area on July 1 confirmed it as resistance. The $149 to $153 zone followed, giving way on July 8 and capping a brief retest days later.

Meanwhile, fundamental pressure keeps building. The first lock-up tranche of 20% releases around Q2 earnings in late July. A bonus 10% tranche required closes above $175.50, a condition the slide has made nearly impossible.

SpaceX also priced a $25 billion inaugural bond issuance in June, with coupons between 5.35% and 6.65%. The added supply deepened a correction that has already cut over $500 billion from Elon Musk’s fortune.

Falling Wedge and RSI Divergence Offer Bulls a Lifeline

The hourly chart complicates the bearish picture. Since the July 1 rejection near $176, SPCX has compressed inside a falling wedge, a pattern that often resolves upward.

The measured target sits at $157.89, roughly 15% above the current price. However, the projection only activates if buyers reclaim the $149 to $153 zone, which now acts as resistance.

Momentum adds weight to the setup. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) printed a higher low on July 14 while the price set a lower low. This marks the first bullish divergence since the correction began.

Analysts see value near these levels, too. Evercore ISI initiated coverage on Tuesday with an Outperform rating and a $230 target, close to the $236 broker consensus.

“We don’t think there’s a debate that this is an extraordinary company on a real path to reshaping the future of humanity.”

SPCX Price Prediction Depends on Starship Flight 13

Thursday’s Starship Flight 13 stands as the first major test of the rebound case. The rocket will carry 20 functional Starlink V3 satellites for the first time. That batch adds 60 terabits per second of capacity, over 20 times a single Falcon 9 load, according to SpaceNews.

A clean mission could trigger the wedge breakout and support Musk’s long-term valuation claims. In contrast, a failure risks a close below the $135 IPO price, which would push SPCX into price discovery with no chart support below.

Retail demand for SPCX exposure also remains visible on-chain. Tokenized SpaceX products on Solana (SOL), led by Backpack’s token with over 10,000 holders, fed the $5.77 billion in tokenized stock volume the network processed in Q2.

For now, SPCX sits between a bullish pattern pointing to $158 and an IPO floor the bulls cannot afford to lose.

Source: BeInCrypto