The Ethereum (ETH) price broke out of a descending trendline that had capped it since the all-time high, while futures open interest climbed to $19.8 billion. ETH trades near $1,928, up 5.2% in the last 24 hours.

Derivatives positioning, liquidation data, and long-term chart structure now point in the same bullish direction. However, one missing ingredient still keeps the breakout unconfirmed.

Futures Traders Return as Open Interest Nears $20 Billion

Glassnode data shows Ethereum futures open interest across all exchanges spiked to $19.8 billion on July 14. That is the highest reading since June 3, when a market-wide deleveraging event reset positioning.

Open interest measures the total value of outstanding futures contracts. Rising open interest alongside a rising price suggests new capital is entering the market rather than shorts simply covering.

The metric had collapsed to approximately $15.5 billion in late June. Its sharp recovery indicates traders are returning to ETH derivatives with conviction. Elevated positive funding on Ethereum supports the same reading.

Whale trader Machi Big Brother reportedly opened a $24.3 million ETH long at 25x leverage, with liquidation set at $1,833.

A drop back below the June range would flip this signal and suggest the new positioning was short-lived.

Long Liquidations at a Yearly Low of 4% Point to a Short Squeeze

The composition of recent liquidations strengthens the bullish case. Ethereum futures long liquidations dominance fell to 4%, its lowest level in a year, according to Glassnode.

In plain terms, only 4% of liquidated positions were longs. The remaining 96% were short traders forced out as the price pushed higher.

Still, squeeze-driven rallies carry a caveat. Forced short covering can exaggerate upside moves, as the June 3 liquidations cascaded to exaggerate the downside. Spot demand must follow for the move to hold.

A return of dominance above 50% would indicate that longs are absorbing damage again and would weaken the momentum signal.

Ethereum Price Holds the Trendline From the 2022 Bottom

The weekly chart shows why the current level matters so much. An ascending trendline drawn from the June 2022 bottom, respected throughout the previous bull market, held near $1,600 once again.

The bounce also occurred inside a long-term green demand zone that has served as support four times since early 2023. Moreover, the area coincides with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the entire cycle at $1,754.

This triple confluence of trendline, horizontal support, and Fibonacci level makes the zone a structural line in the sand. The next major resistance sits far above, at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of $2,438.

ETH Price Prediction as the $2,000 Test Looms

On the daily chart, Monday’s 6.5% green candle broke above a descending trendline in place since the all-time high. That line had rejected the ETH price five times before this breakout.

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms the shift in momentum. It broke out of its own descending trendline, drawn from July 2025, and now sits just below 65.

One warning sign remains. Volume has been declining during the recovery, so the breakout lacks confirmation from participation. Analysts watching the ETH/BTC ratio see early signs of a broader Ethereum comeback that could fill the missing demand.

Immediate resistance lies between $1,900 and $2,000. A confirmed daily close above that zone on rising volume could open the way toward $2,438, nearly 30% above the current price.

On the downside, $1,754 is the critical support. Losing it would expose the trendline near $1,600, and a weekly close below that level would invalidate the bullish structure entirely.

Either volume arrives to validate the breakout, or ETH returns to the zone that has saved it four times already.

Источник: BeInCrypto