Bitcoin remains trapped inside a broader corrective structure after its sharp drop from the mid-$80K region. While buyers have managed to defend the $60K support multiple times, the inability to reclaim key resistance levels continues to favor a cautious outlook in the short term.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, BTC is trading around $63K after stabilizing above the major support zone at $60K. This area has repeatedly attracted demand since the early June selloff and continues to serve as the market’s most important defensive level.

Despite the recent consolidation, the broader structure remains bearish. The price is still trading below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are positioned around the $70K and $73K regions, respectively. Both moving averages are sloping downward, reinforcing the prevailing downtrend.

The recent recovery attempt also failed to reclaim the previous breakdown area around $66K, leaving that zone as the first major resistance. Above it, another significant supply area sits near $74K, aligning closely with the declining 200-day moving average. As long as BTC remains below these levels, rallies are likely to face renewed selling pressure. Should the $60K support fail, the next major downside target appears around $55K, where another higher-timeframe demand zone is located.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows that BTC has been consolidating following its sharp decline from the $74K region. The price continues to trade within the broad descending channel while forming a series of higher lows above the $61K support zone.

The immediate resistance remains at $66K, where horizontal resistance intersects with the channel’s descending trendline. This confluence makes it a critical area for bulls to overcome before any stronger recovery can develop.

On the downside, the $61K support has held multiple retests and currently serves as the first line of defense. Losing this level would likely expose the $58K demand zone. The RSI has also been fluctuating around the neutral 50 level, suggesting that bearish momentum has eased and indecision is ruling the market.

A confirmed breakout above both the descending trendline and the $66K resistance zone would improve the short-term outlook and could trigger a move toward the $72K to $74K region. Until then, the market remains vulnerable to another rejection within the prevailing downtrend.

On-Chain Analysis

The 30-day exponential moving average of the Long-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has continued to decline and is now trading below the critical 1.0 threshold. This metric measures whether long-term holders are spending their coins at a profit or a loss, with readings below 1 indicating that coins are being realized at a loss on average.

The breakdown below 1 suggests that a growing portion of long-term investors (who have held their coins for over 6 months) has entered capitulation, choosing to sell despite being underwater. Historically, prolonged periods below this level have coincided with the late stages of corrective phases, when selling pressure from experienced holders intensifies before the market establishes a more durable bottom.

While this shift reflects deteriorating sentiment among long-term participants, it also suggests that the market is moving deeper into a redistribution phase. If the indicator quickly recovers above 1, it would imply that the recent capitulation was temporary. However, a sustained stay below this threshold would signal continued weakness and increase the likelihood of further downside, particularly if Bitcoin loses the key $60K support zone.

Source: CryptoPotato