Spain’s 1-0 extra-time win over Argentina in the FIFA World Cup final split prediction market traders into sharp winners and losers. One anonymous whale banked $1.35 million, while rapper Drake lost a $1.5 million crypto bet.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup became a major driver for crypto prediction markets. Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi poured millions into World Cup contracts across the tournament, and the final delivered a fresh round of winners and losers.

A Whale Turned a $1.95 Million Spain Bet Into $3.3 Million

Blockchain analytics account Lookonchain reported that a trader using the handle yamal19 created a fresh Polymarket wallet. The account then bought about 3.3 million “Yes” shares in Spain to win the World Cup.

The shares cost an average of 59.1 cents, totaling roughly $1.95 million. Spain’s victory settled the position at $3.3 million, a profit of $1,349,881, or 69.14%.

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Drake’s Bet Falls to the “Curse” Again

Meanwhile, Canadian rapper Drake wagered $1.5 million in Tether (USDT) on Argentina to beat Spain in regulation time. A win would have paid him over $5 million.

The wager needed Argentina to win inside 90 minutes. The match ran to extra time, so even an Argentine victory would have been missed. 

Drake carries a reputation for backing losing sides. Fans call it the “Drake Curse,” the idea that teams he publicly supports tend to fall short.

The rapper was not the only person to lose big backing Argentina. A trader using the handle gud.hl bet $1.23 million on the team at 10% odds, chasing a $12.35 million payout. 

That gamble carried extra weight. According to Bubblemaps, the trader had earned more than $1 million on the TRUMP meme coin, then rolled the entire sum into Argentina. Spain’s win wiped out the whole $1.23 million position.

World Cup Betting Volume Hits Billions

Prediction markets became a major venue for World Cup wagering across the tournament. Polymarket recorded $4.33 billion in trading volume on its World Cup markets.

Kalshi logged $1.89 billion over the same period. The platform also added 3 million new users during the tournament, the company told CNBC.

Both platforms saw winning and losing positions throughout the rounds. One trader, “fishalive,” turned roughly $427,000 into more than $4.7 million earlier on a Spain versus Cape Verde match, while a whale known as ColdSway absorbed $11.6 million in losses.

The final capped a tournament that pulled billions into crypto-based prediction markets, leaving open how much of that activity carries into the months ahead.

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Source: BeInCrypto