Goldman Sachs said Brent crude could climb back toward $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter, approaching the $126.41 intraday peak it hit on April 30 during the US-Iran war, if disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue.

Analysts led by Daan Struyven said escalation in the Middle East, combined with a drop in Persian Gulf flows to below 45% of pre-war levels, has pushed prices higher this month.

Goldman’s Base Case Still Points Lower

Goldman’s own forecast remains for Brent at $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 next year, premised on a de-escalation between the US and Iran. Brent topped $90 a barrel on July 19 as the conflict intensified, before ceasefire hopes eased the rally to $88.47 by July 21.

Still, the analysts said risks skew toward higher prices given the chance of a wider Hormuz blockade risk, as well as potential disruption in the Red Sea, where Houthi rebels have threatened to blockade Saudi shipments.

“Escalation in the Middle East and the decline in estimated Persian Gulf flows to below 45% of pre-war levels have pushed oil prices back up.”

Daan Struyven, Goldman

Where the Rally Could Lose Steam

Lower global inventories have left the market more exposed to shocks, though a slump in Chinese imports and greater demand elasticity could cap gains, the note said. That echoes BeInCrypto’s earlier coverage of reserve buffer depletion fueling similar upside calls from TD Securities.

To hedge persistent shocks from the Middle East and Russia, Goldman recommended going long the December 2026 to March 2027 European diesel timespread, citing tight diesel markets, continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, and elevated gas price odds tied to the conflict.

Source: BeInCrypto