Following a few weeks of escalations, new threats, and strikes, United States President Donald Trump has reportedly ordered his military to stand down instead of carrying out the attacks planned for tonight. The abrupt reversal has immediately shifted the crypto market’s attention back to bitcoin, an asset that has repeatedly proven sensitive to shifts in geopolitical tension.

BTC has typically shown a positive reaction to de-escalation, yet the actual impact of such headlines might only be felt after at least 24 hours. As reported by Axios, the reason for tonight’s withdrawal from new military action is the recently resumed talks on the Strait of Hormuz — one of the most strategically important maritime chokepoints in the world, through which a substantial share of global oil and gas shipments passes every single day.

Large media sites suggested yesterday that Oman has initiated talks with Iran to reopen the key Strait, and some sources claimed that major progress has been made over the past day. It appears Trump wants to see how the negotiations resolve before deciding whether or not the US will continue with its military campaign. Any disruption to the Strait carries global consequences, because it can push energy prices higher, feed inflation expectations, and ripple across both traditional and digital asset markets.

The primary cryptocurrency is prone to reacting to any sort of news on the war front. Renewed attacks typically lead to price corrections as investors move away from risk, while the reemergence of hope for a deal, a ceasefire, or even more permanent peace has often resulted in major rallies. In moments of acute uncertainty, some market participants treat bitcoin as a hedge that operates outside the traditional banking system, while others sell it alongside stocks as a broad risk-off reflex — and the balance between these two forces usually determines the near-term direction.

The tricky part is the timing. Aside from the initial shock when the conflict started in late February, the asset has remained relatively stable when new developments took place over the weekend. Instead, its actual fluctuations in either direction tend to transpire on Monday morning, when most traditional financial markets start to open and liquidity returns in full. Thin weekend order books can mask the market’s true response, so a muted Saturday or Sunday reaction should not be mistaken for indifference.

Consequently, even though BTC has defended its current support zone now — a level many analysts believe is key for its next big move — the bigger reaction is likely to take place within roughly 36 hours. Traders will be watching whether the Hormuz talks hold and whether the ceasefire narrative strengthens, since a durable path toward de-escalation would remove a major overhang and could open the door for renewed upside once the week’s trading gets underway.

Source: CryptoPotato