Goldman Sachs is bullish on the South Korean won, Taiwan dollar, and Malaysian ringgit, arguing that the artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom now shapes Asia’s foreign exchange market.

The bank ranks those currencies above energy importers such as the Thai baht and Indonesian rupiah, which it expects to keep lagging.

Why Chips and Oil Now Split Asia’s Currencies

Goldman identifies two forces behind Asian macro markets this year. One is an energy supply shock. The other is AI capital spending.

That split separates countries that sell chips from those that buy oil. Goldman expects the divergence to hold while AI investment stays intact.

South Korea carries the strongest bullish case. Goldman economists forecast the current account surplus will almost double to roughly 300 billion dollars this year. That figure equals 13.9% of gross domestic product (GDP).

“Reduced foreign equity outflows has lessened offset to surging current account surplus, paving way for [the won’s] rally,” the bank wrote in a report.

Goldman Sachs also expects the Taiwan dollar to outperform, supported by surging semiconductor exports and a widening trade surplus. The bank projects Taiwan’s current account surplus will reach 25% of GDP this year. 

While interest rates are likely to remain unchanged, strong technology exports and substantial US dollar deposits are expected to continue underpinning the currency.

The third currency the bank is bullish on is the Malaysian ringgit. It cited resilient AI-led economic growth, strong export performance, and sustained foreign direct investment as key factors expected to support the currency.

Goldman sees weaker prospects elsewhere. It says falling gold prices and lower real interest rates weigh on Thailand’s baht. 

Indonesia faces governance and policy questions despite steps to attract foreign capital. Lastly, the bank also sees the Philippine peso remaining sensitive to high oil prices.

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AI-Linked Currencies Are Losing Less, Not Gaining

Market data shows what outperformance actually means here. Every currency Goldman links to AI has lost ground against the dollar index, which is up nearly 3% in 2026.

The Singapore dollar has slipped 0.28% this year. The ringgit has fallen by 0.67%, the won by 1.64%, and the Taiwan dollar by 3.05%.

Still, energy importers fared worse. The peso dropped 4.48%, the baht 5.97%, and the rupee 6.01%. Indonesia’s rupiah leads the declines at 7.30%. Even the weakest AI currency has beaten the strongest energy importer by more than a percentage point.

China remains the exception. The yuan has gained 3.32% this year, the only Asian currency higher against the greenback. Goldman keeps a 12-month USD/CNY forecast of 6.50, citing undervaluation and Beijing’s push to internationalize the currency.

Not every bullish call rests on AI. Goldman expects the Reserve Bank of India’s measures and softer oil prices to provide support for the Indian rupee.

For the Singapore dollar, Goldman remains neutral after the Monetary Authority of Singapore left policy unchanged.

Three currencies, therefore, carry the AI case. That distinction matters if capital spending slows, since a shift in the cycle could likely move them all at once.

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Source: BeInCrypto