A $20 million options trade pays off only if SpaceX stock nearly triples by Friday. More than 450,000 contracts sit at a $330 strike before Tuesday’s earnings.

That price sits almost three times (3x) above where the stock trades now. Options analysts doubt small investors built the position, and point to a bank instead.

Who Is Behind the $20 Million SpaceX Options Trade

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) changed hands near $124 on Tuesday afternoon, up by over 8% on the day. The company priced its June 12 offering at $135, according to its prospectus filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

SpaceX has never traded anywhere near $330. Its record high is $225.64, and the median analyst target sits at $225. The strike clears both by about 46%.

The $330 line expiring August 7 holds at least seven times the open interest of the next busiest contract, CNBC reported. Those contracts control 45 million shares, worth roughly $14.8 billion if the stock ever reached the strike.

That is about 7% of a public float of only 639 million shares. Brent Kochuba founded options-flow platform SpotGamma. He said the buying pattern matches neither hedge funds nor market makers nor small investors.

“My guess is that banks own these calls as a hedge, maybe against some kind of structured product or some other short exposure they have.”

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SpotGamma figures cited by CNBC put Monday’s buying at about 90,000 contracts for $2.2 million. Because the calls grew cheaper as the stock fell below its IPO price, the accumulated premium reaches near $20 million.

What Traders Expect From SpaceX Stock After Earnings

SpaceX reports after Tuesday’s close, its first results since the June listing. Traders have already mapped the top earnings scenarios investors are weighing.

Contracts on the August 7 expiry price a swing of about $20.30, or 16.57%. That implies a band of $102.17 to $142.77. The strike sits 131% above the top of it.

CNBC put the earnings-specific move at 14%. Against a market value near $1.5 trillion, one print could move roughly $207 billion of shareholder value.

Implied volatility near 133 keeps even distant strikes liquid, according to ThinkOrSwim data cited by CNBC. Volatility usually cools once results clear.

Here it may not. The insider lockup opens Thursday, freeing roughly 911.5 million shares, more than the entire float. Meta’s 2012 lockup crash remains the closest precedent.

Jay Pestrichelli is chief trading officer at Tidal Financial Group, which manages more than $60 billion across 420-plus exchange-traded funds. He argued the calls can turn profitable well before the strike, putting that zone near $215 by Wednesday morning.

“It’s not a speculative moon shot … you don’t buy the highest strike in the chain unless you’re trying to reduce the cost of a hedge.”

Even $215 would leave SpaceX short of its own record. Whether the $330 line was cheap insurance or a real directional trade should resolve by Friday. That lands one day after the float more than doubles.

Source: BeInCrypto