Bitcoin is trading near $78,000 after failing to hold above the $82,500 resistance zone, leaving $83,000 as the level analyst Crypto Patel says must be reclaimed to change its bearish higher-timeframe structure.

A rejection could put $68,000, $62,000, and eventually $50,000 back on the table, although Patel also sees a path toward $300,000 if Bitcoin’s four-year cycle pattern repeats.

Bitcoin Faces Another Test Around $83K

In a September 8 post on X, Crypto Patel said Bitcoin had been rejected from $82,500, a resistance area he had identified in an earlier analysis on September 7. The market watcher’s broader view remains bearish while BTC trades below $83,000, with a strong daily close above that level needed to invalidate the setup.

Bitcoin’s recent recovery began around $57,800, but the move has run into resistance between $79,000 and $83,000. Patel described this area as a bearish order block, where sellers could attempt to regain control.

A daily close above $83,000 followed by a successful retest would open the way towards $89,000 to $91,000 and then potentially $97,000 to $100,000, based on Patel’s September 7 analysis. However, failure at resistance would leave $65,000 to $50,000 as relevant downside levels.

The latest CoinGecko data puts BTC at around $78,000, down 1.4% in 24 hours and barely moving across seven days. The token is still up 21% over 30 days, although it remains nearly 38% below its October 6, 2025, all-time high.

Short-term price action has also left room for another pullback, with Patel earlier pointing out that Bitcoin’s weekly Supertrend had turned green for the first time since November 2025, placing major support around $62,000 to $65,000. But despite the broader bullish reading, the analyst expects at least a 20% retracement before another major move higher.

As CryptoPotato reported earlier in the week, the OG cryptocurrency had been testing the $82,000 area after US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their second-biggest daily inflow of the year, with options traders relatively calm ahead of US inflation data and the Federal Reserve meeting, with 18-day implied volatility around 37% to 38%.

Analyst Sees $300K Possibility If Cycle Repeats

In another analysis, the crypto researcher took a very different view of Bitcoin’s longer-term prospects. His monthly chart pointed to cycle tops around 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025, with roughly 1,420 to 1,450 days separating each peak.

Following those highs, Bitcoin experienced deep drawdowns before entering accumulation phases, and the chart places the current market near $79,000 inside the latest accumulation zone after the 2025 peak.

If that historical rhythm continues, Patel projects a potential next major target above $300,000, with the chart placing a new all-time high around August 2029. But the forecast depends entirely on the cycle pattern repeating, rather than on a confirmed technical signal.

Source: CryptoPotato