President Donald Trump said Wednesday that oil prices will not fall until right after the November midterm elections. He tied relief at the pump to an Iran war he expects Tehran to abandon once Americans vote.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, climbed 3.78% to $103 the same day. That is its highest level since May, and it followed fresh strikes around the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil Sets the Political Clock

Trump spoke to reporters before flying to a Republican convention in Dallas, accusing Iran of dragging out the fighting to weaken his party in the midterms, the congressional elections held halfway through a presidential term.

“I think it’s going to take a little bit longer than the midterm,” he said.

He also argued Tehran is near collapse and would seek an end to the war immediately after the vote. No Iranian official has offered any such timetable. The conflict is now in its seventh month.

BeInCrypto reported a day earlier that Goldman Sachs saw $120 oil as Trump walked away from diplomacy. Wednesday’s remarks confirmed that reading.

“Bookmark this lie…Why should Americans pay the price for the wars of the Israeli regime?” the Consulate General of the Islamic Republic of Iran wrote in a post, responding to Trump putting a political clock on oil prices.

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Pump Prices and Crypto Feel the Squeeze

The American Automobile Association (AAA) put the national gasoline average at $4.22 a gallon on Wednesday. A month earlier drivers paid $4.01.

Traders are now pricing the same war twice, once in oil and once in risk assets. Crypto bettors currently give Democrats 51% odds of sweeping Congress, with record pump prices cited as a driver.

Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress. Elections are set for November 3.

History Says Wars Move Oil, Not Voters

Trump’s remarks notwithstanding, the record gives his timeline little support. Crude has collapsed after a midterm before, but never because Congress changed hands.

Oil ran from $17 a barrel in July 1990 to roughly $46 by mid-October. Prices then slid as coalition forces gained ground against Iraq and supply fears eased. The war resolving moved the market, not the November vote.

Academic work points the causality the other way. A World Bank study of 207 elections across 50 democracies found that a 1% oil shock cuts an incumbent’s re-election odds by 5.9 percentage points. Higher prices squeeze household spending, and voters punish whoever holds office.

“Trump’s latest lie is that the war will end immediately after the elections. The spin is that Iran is only holding out to influence the outcome of the election. It’s a very convenient take, as it lets Republicans off the hook, assuming voters are dumb enough to buy the excuse,” Peter Schiff challenged.

That makes the midterms far more likely to be a consequence of $100 oil than a cure for it. Whether Brent falls in November depends on the Strait of Hormuz reopening, and voters have no say in that.

Source: BeInCrypto