Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong still expects Bitcoin (BTC) to reach $400,000 by 2030, a target that now demands a 420% rally from roughly $76,930.

The forecast arrives during a volatile stretch for Bitcoin. The largest cryptocurrency has fallen 5.4% over the past 7 days and sits about 39% below its October 2025 record of over $126,000.

Armstrong Reads the Clock, Not the Chart

In an interview with CNBC, Armstrong explained that Bitcoin moves through four-year cycles of run-up, euphoria, and decline. Most down periods last roughly a year, and this one has just passed that mark.

“Most of the down periods last about a year, and we have actually just come across the 1-year mark for this down period, so I personally believe that the bottom is in on BTC in its most recent cycle,” he said.

He flagged two key events. According to him, traders will watch the CLARITY Act, which faces a procedural vote in the Senate on September 15.

The second is the next halving, about 18-19 months away. Armstrong expects the usual run-up ahead of it.

“I think the next year or two is going to be good for Bitcoin,” he added.

Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens

The Front-Running Trade Does the Heavy Lifting

Analyst Jesse Myers sees the same clock. He noted that Bitcoin rallied roughly 100x after the 2012 halving, 30x after the 2016 halving, and 8x after the 2020 halving, before traders began front-running the event in 2024.

“If the same pattern plays out this cycle, the next 1.6 years could be the most explosive time for BTC,” Myers wrote.

Repeating the last cycle would carry Bitcoin 4x from its $58,000 bottom to $232,000 by the April 2028 halving, then 2x to $464,000 in the second half of 2029. That path clears Armstrong’s number with room to spare.

Bitcoin Demand Has Not Caught Up Yet

Nonetheless, those projections rest on a market that is not buying Bitcoin right now. The 90-day cumulative volume delta for spot markets sits neutral, with futures traders driving the recent rebound.

Institutional flows now look shakier, too. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) pulled in $986.9 million in the week ended September 4, extending a three-week run worth about $3.8 billion.

That streak is under threat. The current week shows $166.9 million in net outflows. Another negative print would snap the three-week run.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel to watch leaders and journalists provide expert insights

Source: BeInCrypto