CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has laid out what he expects from Bitcoin’s (BTC) current bull cycle. He also sees the following bear market as different from past ones.

Ju ties that outlook to a change in who owns Bitcoin and the kind of capital it now attracts. His outlook arrives with the asset trading near its highest level since January.

Ju Reads a Calmer Cycle in the On-Chain Data

Ju expects gains of 3 to 5 times this cycle rather than another 10x-plus parabolic rally. A gentler bear market would follow, in his view.

He credited Bitcoin’s larger market and growing institutional ownership. Retail hot money, he noted, powered past cycles and their 80% crashes.

Ju pointed to on-chain data as support. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio never fell below 1 this cycle. 

“Some investors took losses, but holders as a whole never went underwater,” he said. “Even the PnL Index’s 365-day moving average, which typically lags at turning points, is forming a meaningful inflection right now.”

Ju also flagged a rise in realized cap and a halt in selling by OG whales. Futures whales, meanwhile, built large long positions near the bottom.

“None of this means Bitcoin has a ceiling. It means the trade-off has changed. Giving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash, and that is exactly what invites patient, long-horizon capital instead of hot money,” he wrote.

Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens

Doing the Math From Bitcoin’s June Low

Bitcoin’s September rally gives his view some footing. The asset reached $87,395 on September 21, its highest price since late January.

That move followed Bitcoin’s first weekly close above the 50-week moving average since November 2025. Galaxy’s Alex Thorn has described reclaiming that average as strong confirmation of past bear market lows.

Before that close, Bitcoin had traded below the average for 45 straight weeks. The lowest point of that stretch came in late June, when the price fell to near $58,000.

Bitcoin has since gained about 49%, trading at $86,380 by press time. Measured from those lows, a 3x move would equal roughly $174,000, about 38% above the $126,080 record from October 6, 2025.

A 4x move would equal about $232,000, and a 5x move would equal about $290,000. Those levels fall between two calls from VanEck’s Matthew Sigel, who has forecast $100,000 for next year and $500,000 by 2029

Subscribe to our YouTube channel to watch leaders and journalists provide expert insights

Source: BeInCrypto