Key points
- 12 of 17 XRP oversold signals with complete data were followed by gains over 90 days, with a 9.1% median return.
- The median deepest decline in those periods was 21.8%, and four of five failed recoveries occurred during a prolonged market downturn.
- XRP’s RSI, moving averages, ETF outflows and volume ratio showed weakness in the latest data cited.
What the 90-day historical sample shows
XRP is described as trading near $1.08 after another week of heavy selling. Against that weak backdrop, Bitrue Research examined past occasions when the token’s daily Relative Strength Index fell below 35. Its review suggests that a recovery has often followed over a 90-day period, but the finding is a historical pattern, not evidence that the current decline has ended or that the same outcome will recur.
The research counted 18 daily RSI readings below 35 since January 2023. One of those instances lacked complete 90-day follow-up data, leaving 17 episodes in the main comparison. Of those, 12 ended with XRP higher after 90 days, a success rate of 70.6%. The sample therefore shows that gains were more common than losses over that horizon, while still including five cases that did not finish higher.
Among the 17 complete episodes, the median 90-day return was a gain of 9.1%. Bitrue Research compared that figure with a 3% median return across all trading days. The comparison suggests that the oversold readings were followed by stronger typical returns in this sample. It does not establish that an RSI below 35 caused a rebound, nor does a median describe what happened in every individual episode.
Why the historical pattern has limits
The potential return came with a notable risk of further losses along the way: the median deepest decline during the 90-day periods was 21.8%. That statistic matters alongside the positive median ending return, because it indicates that the path to a higher price could be difficult. A 90-day gain did not necessarily mean a smooth recovery, and the figures do not identify how severe any particular future drawdown might be.
Results over shorter windows were less consistent. XRP recovered within 30 days in 11 of the 18 recorded cases, while the 60-day success rate was 50%. In other words, the historical evidence became more favorable at the longer 90-day horizon than at these interim checkpoints. That difference cautions against treating an oversold reading as a signal for an immediate bounce or assuming improvement must appear quickly.
Market conditions also shaped the historical outcomes. Four of the five unsuccessful 90-day recoveries occurred during the prolonged downturn from October 2025 to January 2026, according to the supplied analysis. This concentration suggests that a weak broader market can coincide with XRP failing to advance after an oversold signal. It also means the aggregate success rate may not describe how XRP behaves under every market environment.
Current indicators point to continued weakness
The latest readings cited in the report remain weak rather than confirming a turnaround. XRP’s daily RSI reached 26.64 on November 9, a level that places it well below the research’s threshold of 35. RSI readings below 30 are generally described as indicating unusually heavy selling. Such a reading characterizes recent price momentum; it cannot by itself show whether sellers have finished or buyers are ready to return.
Price was also below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages in the latest data. Those positions add evidence of a weak trend context to the low RSI, rather than providing a standalone sign of recovery. The report does not supply a dated series of moving-average values or say when XRP might reclaim either average. The available information therefore describes current technical pressure without establishing how long it will persist.
US spot XRP exchange-traded funds recorded approximately $10.4 million in outflows on November 9, another data point the report places alongside the weak technical picture. Outflows indicate that funds left those products on that date, but the supplied figures do not establish what drove them or whether the movement continued afterward. They should be read as a single reported daily flow, not proof of a lasting change in investor demand.
Price levels and conditions to monitor
Trading volume also pointed to an imbalance between down and up sessions. Bitrue Research put the latest 20-day volume ratio at 0.45, explaining that falling sessions attracted more than twice the volume of rising sessions. That comparison indicates that buying pressure was weak over the measured period. It does not reveal what will happen next, but it helps explain why a low RSI alone is insufficient evidence of a durable recovery.
The report identifies $1.036 as a downside level to watch: a move below it would make declines toward $1 and potentially $0.93 more likely, in the analysts’ assessment. These are conditional levels, not stated outcomes. The supplied analysis does not say that either lower price has been reached, and it gives no probability for those scenarios. Their relevance depends on how price behaves around the cited threshold.
On the upside, the analysis says a sustained move above $1.18 accompanied by stronger buying volume would suggest that a recovery was gaining strength. It names $1.32 to $1.48 as the next major resistance zone if buyers regain control. Bitrue’s warning remains central: oversold readings show selling has been intense, not that it has ended. Whether buyers return and the broader market stabilizes remains uncertain.
Source: BeInCrypto
