Analytics firm 10x Research believes that the SpaceX share offering was not the finale but the starting "shot" for three new trades around the space economy. SpaceX held the largest IPO in history, and now, according to analysts, the main opportunity is shifting to the ecosystem around the company.

SpaceX placed 555 million shares at $135 and raised $75 billion. Trading opened at $150. The price rose to $176.52 and closed the first session at $161.11 — a gain of 19.3%. The capitalization exceeded $2 trillion, which instantly made the company the sixth-largest among US public organizations. Elon Musk became the world's first trillionaire.

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How the price forecast played out

10x Research's researchers recalled that they had stated their position in advance — back on April 3, when they published their first thesis on the SpaceX IPO and launched their own space index. They named the UFO ETF fund as the company's closest stock-market analogue: its quotes tracked the movement of SpaceX shares by about 87–88% (the coefficient of determination R² — a measure of how accurately one asset tracks the dynamics of another, where 100% means a complete match).

According to the analysts, the price lined up almost exactly along the scale of benchmarks their analysis had predicted. The reports tracked five levels: SpaceX's internal fair value of $1.25 trillion, secondary deals on the Forge platform with a valuation of about $1.53 trillion, an IPO target of $1.75 trillion, and synthetic perpetual SPCX contracts on Hyperliquid and Binance that implied $2.2–2.4 trillion.

10x Research experts argued that the secondary market undervalues the company, while the synthetic contracts signal a sharp move on the first day, but Hyperliquid's 36% premium is a speculative ceiling, not a target. The close at $161.11 with a capitalization just above $2 trillion fell exactly between the IPO target and the synthetic premium. Sellers on Forge at the $129 equivalent gave up about 25% of potential profit, while buyers of the perpetual contract on Hyperliquid at $200 ended up at a loss.

Source: BeInCrypto